关键词: 中美经贸摩擦, 大豆进口贸易, 贸易格局, 议价能力

Abstract: Facing the increasing uncertainty of the trade environment and the rigid rise of China's soybean demand, it is of great practical significance to enhance China's bargaining power in the international soybean market. Based on the analysis of the evolution of the international soybean trade pattern, this paper employs the bilateral stochastic frontier model to conduct a quantitative analysis of the bargaining power of the countries participating in the soybean trade. The findings show that Sino-US economic and trade frictions have had a greater impact on the international soybean trade pattern. China's dependence on Brazilian soybeans has increased, and the degree of diversification of soybean exports from the United States and Brazil has increased. China's bargaining power in soybean import trade has been lower than that of exporting countries for a long time; the soybean import price is higher than the theoretical equilibrium price. During the periods of Sino-US economic and trade friction, China's bargaining power in soybean import trade was higher than that of the United States, but with the recovery of Sino-US soybean trade, the United States has once again mastered the bargaining advantage.The trade pattern and thecontrol over the financial markets, the distribution channels, the provenance, and the international trade rules are the key factors that affect the bargaining power of the international soybean market. Such measures as increasing special subsidies, promoting the diversification of soybean import sources, and promoting the expansion of soybean and other oil crops production will help improve China's bargaining power and risk resistance capacity in the international soybean market.

Key words: Sino-US economic and trade friction, soybean import trade, trade pattern, bargaining power