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    The Innovation Spillover Effect from Science and Technology Finance Policy: Evidences from the Supplier-Customer Relationship
    CAO Ting-qiu, PENG Wen-hao
    Contemporary Finance & Economics    2024, 0 (10): 59-72.  
    Abstract36)            Save
    The financial policy of science and technology is a significant instrument for advancing an innovation-driven development strategy. However, the existing studies have primarily concentrated on the direct impact of the policy on innovation while overlooking the potential for indirect innovation spillovers. The “Pilot Policy of Promoting the Integration of Science, Technology and Finance” implemented by the Ministry of Science and Technology and five other departments in two batches is employed by this study as a quasi-natural experiment to investigate the innovation spillover effect of the science and technology finance policy and its spillover channels with a multi-period difference-in-difference method on the basis of the supply chain data of China’s A-share listed companies from 2009 to 2022. The results indicate that the pilot policy has innovation spillover effect and that the innovation level of suppliers in the non-pilot regions has been significantly enhanced. The spillover channel analysis demonstrates that the innovation effect of the pilot policy is transmitted from customers to suppliers through two main channels: the knowledge spillover channel and the demand-pull channel. Further research indicates that the innovation spillover effects of the pilot policy are more pronounced in the samples with higher switching costs for customers, superior absorption and transformation capacity for suppliers, robust intellectual property protection, and close proximity between suppliers and customers. Consequently, the government should further enhance and promote the pilot policy and enhance the innovation spillover effect of the policy by reinforcing the protection of intellectual property rights and encouraging collaborative innovation among enterprises, so as to improve the quality and efficacy of financial services for science and technology innovation.
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    Supply Chain Network Relationship and Trade Credit Supply: From the Perspective of Structural Hole
    YUAN Ye-hu, WU Duan-duan
    Contemporary Finance & Economics    2024, 0 (10): 73-85.  
    Abstract28)            Save
    Supply chain network is an important social network for enterprises, which has an important impact on promoting the overall coordinated development of supply chain. Taking China’ A-share listed enterprises from 2012 to 2022 as the research samples, this paper explores the influence of business supply chain network relationship on their commercial credit supply and its acting mechanism from the perspective of structure hole. The results show that enterprises with rich supply chain network structure holes can significantly improve the supply of commercial credit and optimize the structure of commercial credit supply. This is because enterprises occupying the position of supply chain network structural holes can ease financing constraints to enhance the supply capacity of business credit, and enhance the risk-taking ability of enterprises to enhance supply willingness, thus improving the supply of commercial credit. Among the enterprises in regions with lower economic policy uncertainty and higher marketization process, the enterprises with better supply chain stability and closer geographical distance of supply chain, as well as the non-state-owned enterprises and the enterprises at growth stage, occupying the position of abundant supply chain network structure holes has a more significant impact on their commercial credit supply. Therefore, enterprises should attach importance to the embedded supply chain network relationship, make rational decisions of commercial credit supply, build a cooperative and win-win supply chain system, and promote the coordinated development of supply chain.
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    Unanticipated Monetary Policy and Financial Cycle: A Study Based on Fixed Spread and Floating Spread
    CHEN Cai-hong, AN Qi, OUYANG Zhi-gang, ZHANG Ji-qiang
    Contemporary Finance & Economics    2024, 0 (9): 57-71.  
    Abstract31)            Save
    Financial cycle plays a crucial role in the regulation of monetary policy. Accurately identifying China's unexpected monetary policy and exploring the relationship between unexpected monetary policy and financial cycle can provide new ideas for monetary policy reform, which is also conducive to the optimization of monetary policy and the healthy development of the financial system. By making use of the characteristics of the spread changes between fixed rate bonds and floating rate bonds before and after the monetary policy announcements, this paper identifies China's unexpected monetary policy with the Proxy SVAR model. Then based on this, it explores the impact of the unexpected monetary policy on the financial cycle. The findings of the empirical study show that an unexpected monetary policy shock that increases the broad money supply by one standard deviation will lead to a 0.06% rise in the financial cycle, that the explanatory power of unexpected monetary policy shocks on financial cycle fluctuations is about 30%, that the impact of unexpected monetary policy on the financial cycle will be realized through financing and expected channels, and that the current monetary policy regulation presents the characteristics of counter-cyclical and cross cyclical regulation of the financial cycle. Therefore, the People's Bank of China should further improve the early warning management mechanism, pay close attention to the changes in the financial cycle, improve the counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment of monetary policy, optimize the communication and coordination capacity, and promote the virtuous circle of financial stability and stable economic development.
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    Reform of the Administrative Approval System and Corporate ESG Performance: An Exploration of A Market-Oriented Governance Mechanism
    FU Wen-ji, LI Qing-yuan, LAN Sen
    Contemporary Finance & Economics    2024, 0 (9): 72-84.  
    Abstract33)            Save
    Improving the ESG performance of enterprises is an important part of achieving the goals of“double carbon”and the sustainable development of the economy and society. This paper conducts a quasi-natural experiment to analyze the impact of the reform of the administrative licensing system on the ESG (environment, society and governance) performance of enterprises based on the establishment of regional administrative licensing centers (ALCs). The findings of the empirical study show that the reform of the administrative approval system can improve the ESG performance of enterprises. In terms of its working path, the reform of the administrative approval system mainly enhances corporate ESG performance by inhibiting management short-sightedness, reducing institutional transaction costs, and intensifying market competition. The heterogeneity test reveals that the effect of the reform of the approval system on improving the ESG performance of enterprises is more significant in private enterprises, enterprises with a higher entrepreneurial spirit, and enterprises in regions with a poorer relation between the government and market. From the perspective of market investors and supply chain relationships, the reform of the administrative approval system not only improves the ESG performance of enterprises but also helps to enhance their operational efficiency and the ability to obtain commercial credit. Therefore, China's ESG governance practices should continue to move towards the market-oriented reform, improve the market-based allocation system of factors of production, and give full play to the decisive role of the market in resource allocation.
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    A Research on the Measurement and Evolution of City Commercial Banks’ Implicit Guarantee in China
    LI Yi-hua, ZHU Jie
    Contemporary Finance & Economics    2024, 0 (8): 59-71.  
    Abstract67)            Save
    It is an important aspect of preventing and controlling financial risks and improving the efficiency of fund allocation to accurately identify the implicit guarantee of city commercial banks. Based on the data of inter-bank deposits issued by Chinese city commercial banks from 2014 to 2021, this paper uses the interest rate difference method and the dummy variable method to measure the implicit guarantee level of city commercial banks, and analyzes the evolution of the implicit guarantee of city commercial banks in combination with the bankruptcy event of Baoshang Bank in 2019. The results show that the implicit guarantee can reduce the financing cost of city commercial banks by about 60%. The distribution of the implicit guarantee of city commercial banks is negatively correlated with the rating of city commercial banks and positively correlated with the local government fiscal resources, that is, the lower the rating and the higher the local government fiscal resources, the higher the implicit guarantee level will be. The mechanism analysis reveals that the formation mechanism of implicit guarantee mainly depends on the risks of city commercial banks and the ability and willingness of local government to guarantee. After the bankruptcy event of Baoshang Bank, the implicit guarantee of city commercial banks has been significantly weakened, and this impact is different due to the government’s willingness and ability to guarantee and the different risks of city commercial banks. Therefore, it is suggested that city commercial banks should strengthen the construction of risk early warning system, actively introduce strategic investors and optimize equity structure. It is also suggested that the government departments should optimize the credit rating of city commercial banks and strengthen the role of the third-party institutions in information disclosure.
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    Research on Macro-Prudential Policies, Financial Frictions, and Government Expenditure Multipliers
    LI Xiao-sheng, SONG Ma-lin
    Contemporary Finance & Economics    2024, 0 (8): 72-84.  
    Abstract48)            Save
    The macro-prudential fiscal policy can effectively reduce the fiscal footprint of monetary policy, which is playing a crucial role in controlling debt growth and ensuring economic security. On the basis of establishing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for an open economy, this paper explores the issue of government expenditure multiplier by introducing a macro prudential fiscal policy framework and financial friction factors. The findings show that: firstly, the government expenditure multipliers under the framework of macro-prudential policies is bigger than that without government expenditure multipliers. When only considering the government department debt, the government expenditure multipliers under the framework of macro-prudential policies is the biggest, while the welfare losses are minimized; when the debt of both households and government departments are considered, the government expenditure multiplier under the macro prudential policy framework is smaller than that under the benchmark model. Secondly, under the macro-prudential policy framework, the government expenditure multiplier is smaller under a floating exchange rate system than under a fixed exchange rate system, which is in line with the classical macroeconomic theory. Thirdly, the government expenditure multiplier under financial friction is larger than that without considering financial friction. Given the positive role of macro-prudential policies in controlling debt risks and leveraging the multiplier effect of government spending, it is recommended that government departments introduce macro-prudential policies in the field of fiscal policy.
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    Finance Serving the Development of New Quality Productivity: Historical Experience and Inspirations for China
    HE Qing, HU Tong, LIANG Bai-lin
    Contemporary Finance & Economics    2024, 0 (7): 59-70.  
    Abstract46)            Save
    The new quality productivity is an advanced form of productivity that meets the needs of high-quality development, and giving full play to the functions of finance is a major requirement for the development of new quality productivity. The historical experiences of the three industrial revolutions show that there is a mutually reinforcing relationship between finance, economic growth and productivity progress. On the one hand, finance can provide high-quality services to promote economic growth. Economic growth forms the driving force for productivity progress at the demand side; in return, productivity progress may bring improvements in economic quality and quantity at the supply side. On the other hand, finance can provide fund support for productivity progress through banks and capital markets, while productivity progress in turn can provide good returns for finance. At the same time, finance is a double-edged sword. Multiple financial crises in history have caused damage to productivity, indicating that strengthening financial regulation is a guarantee for promoting a virtuous cycle of finance, economic growth, and productivity progress. Therefore, the development of the new quality productivity in financial services not only needs to improve the quality and efficiency of financial services for the real economy, but also needs to improve financial regulation and maintain the bottom line of preventing systemic financial risks. To be specific, firstly, we need to build a financial system that places equal emphasis on banks and capital markets to provide high-quality financial services for the development of the new quality productivity. Secondly, we must improve the capital entry and exit mechanism and form a virtuous cycle of financial capital investment and the development of the new quality productivity. Finally, the“five major financial articles”must be completed to serve the advancement of the new quality productivity and implement the new development concepts.
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    Fire Sale, Systemic Risk and Banking System Stability
    ZHAO Ye-xiang, ZHOU Ai-min
    Contemporary Finance & Economics    2024, 0 (7): 71-87.  
    Abstract26)            Save
    Clarifying the contagious path of systemic risks and the influencing factors on the banking system stability under the fire sale is of great significance for maintaining national financial security. Based on regulatory constraints and individual rationality, this paper establishes a Multi-Distribution Fire-Sale model (MD-FS) to unify external shocks, fire sale, systemic risks, and system stability into the same theoretical framework. It also investigates the micro generation mechanism of systemic risks and the factors influencing system stability in China’s banking industry with the data of the balance sheet of China’s banking industry from 2007 to 2021. The findings show that, firstly, the sensitivity of China’s banking industry to the fire sale is significantly different under heterogeneous external shocks. Among them, the response to the fire sale under small shocks is rapid, while the response to the fire sale under large shocks is slow. Secondly, the generation mechanism of the banking systemic risks exhibits consistency under heterogeneous shocks. The external shocks are the trigger for the fire sale, while the direct fire-sale losses and the fire-sale contagion losses are the main components of the systemic risks. Thirdly, financial upward clustering, financial downward clustering, and bank capital have a significant impact on the stability of the banking system, and their interaction determines the stability of the banking system. Therefore, the regulatory authorities need to further establish a dynamic pressure system, encourage differentiated banking operations, enhance capital retention, and reasonably guide the fire-sale expectation of banks, thereby enhancing the stability of the banking system and maintaining national financial security.
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    Does the Matthew Effect Exist in Bank Digital Transformation: From the Perspective of Business Performance
    XIONG Jian, LI Chao-wei
    Contemporary Finance & Economics    2024, 0 (6): 57-70.  
    Abstract96)            Save
    Digital transformation is an inevitable choice for banks’ high-quality growth, but it can also trigger a series of inequalities. By making use of the data of 208 commercial banks in China from 2010 to 2021, this paper examines the Matthew effect and its intrinsic mechanism in the bank digital transformation from the perspective of business performance. The results show that the relationship between bank digital transformation and business performance manifests itself first as the digital paradox and then as the financial enhancement, with an overall U-curve relationship. There is a clear Matthew effect in the digital transformation of large and small banks. As banks increase in size, the turning point of the U-shaped curve of the relationship between digital transformation and business performance shifts to the left, indicating that large-scale banks require lower degree digital transformation to achieve financial enhancement compared to small-scale banks. The mechanism analysis shows that bank digital transformation has an inverted U-shaped and U-shaped relationship with operating costs and operating revenues respectively, and the turning point of the curves shift to the left as the size of the bank increases, leading to a nonlinear impact of bank digital transformation on business performance and the Matthew effect in the digital transformation of large and small banks. Further discussion reveals that the Matthew effect of bank digital transformation is also reflected at the level of operational risks. Compared to small-scale banks, digital transformation is more beneficial for large-scale banks to reduce operational risks. Therefore, it is recommended that while accelerating the digital transformation of banks, we should focus on mitigating the Matthew effect, fully release the dividends of digital development, and improve the quality and efficiency of financial services to the real economy.
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    CVC Accelerating the Coupling Development of Industrial Chain and Innovative Chain: Theoretical Basis and Empirical Evidences
    ZHANG Rao, ZHANG Yue, GUO Xiao-xu
    Contemporary Finance & Economics    2024, 0 (6): 71-83.  
    Abstract57)            Save
    The coupling relationship between industrial chain and innovation chain has received increasing attention in academic researches. Based on the 2008-2022 dataset of Corporate Venture Capital (CVC) in China, this paper explores the potential functions of CVC in promoting the coupling development of industrial chains and innovative chains. By employing the entropy evaluation method and a coupling coordination degree model, this paper analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution and the distribution of the integration of the dual chains across provinces. The findings show that the coupling coordination degree has been increasing gradually year by year, but the regional development is imbalanced, showing a declining trend from the east to the central then to the west. The empirical tests reveal that CVC plays a positive promotion effect on the coupling development of the dual chains by alleviating financing constraints, attracting talent concentration and optimizing industrial structures. Further analysis reveals that there exists a significant threshold effect of CVC, when the inflow of the amounts of funds on deposit and the level of economic development reach a certain threshold, the function of CVC to promote the chain coupling is gradually apparent. As the volume of capital and economic development levels continue to rise, the empowering effect of CVC becomes more prominent. Meanwhile, CVC has a regional heterogeneous effect on the coupling of the dual chains, and this effect is more significant in the eastern region compared with the central and western regions. Therefore, it is suggested to increase support for CVC at both the national and regional levels, let science play a positive role in CVC, encourage cross regional entrepreneurial investment and promote coordinated development between different regions, emphasize the role of enterprises, promote the integration of innovative elements and the transformation of scientific and technological achievements, and provide strong support for the efficient coupling of the dual chain.
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    Banking Fintech, Economic Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment Behavior
    FENG Yong-qi, CAO Yue
    Contemporary Finance & Economics    2024, 0 (5): 58-72.  
    Abstract75)            Save
    At present, uncertainty has become normal, and the role of banking fintech empowering the development of the real economy is more and more significant. In theory, banking fintech has the function of optimizing the allocation of financial resources and alleviating the negative impact of economic policy uncertainty on enterprises. Based on the data of banking fintech patents and corporate loans from 2013 to 2022 in China, this paper explores how banking fintech adjusts the inhibitory effect of economic policy uncertainty on corporate real investment. The findings show that, firstly, banking fintech could significantly alleviate the inhibitory impact of economic policy uncertainty on corporate investment, and this effect is more significant in the state-owned enterprises and the enterprises with lower digitalization levels or lower financial risks. Secondly, banking fintech primarily exerts a mitigating effect by reducing financial frictions and by decreasing the option waiting value. Thirdly, banking fintech could weaken the negative effect of the economic policy uncertainty on corporate financialization, and further enhance the level of corporate social responsibility bearing. Therefore, the government and the banking sector should actively promote the development of fintech, enhance the banking sector's ability to provide personalized services to enterprises, strengthen the integration of fintech with the real economy, and improve the regulatory system and the risk prevention system.
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    Banking Fintech, Lending Distance and Banking Competition: From the Perspective of Credit Diversification
    FENG Jue, WANG Ying-dong, CHEN Meng-jie
    Contemporary Finance & Economics    2024, 0 (5): 73-85.  
    Abstract69)            Save
    Fintech has produced far-reaching changes in the banking business model and has become the key for banks to break through the competition in the credit market. By making use of the data of banking fintech patents, the data of listed company borrowing, and the geographic information of commercial banks from 2013 to 2021, this paper systematically assesses the effect of fintech development on real banking competition and its mechanism. The findings show that banking fintech has significantly intensified the banking competition and expanded the diversified access for enterprises to get credit. The mechanism analysis shows that banking fintech has intensified the banking competition by expanding the lending distance between banks and enterprises, and this mechanism is more significant in areas with scarce financial resources, which helps to improve the fairness of financial services. The heterogeneity analysis shows that the positive effect of banking fintech on banking competition is more pronounced among firms with higher financing constraints, insufficient market attention, or leading digital transformation, which has effectively improved the allocation efficiency of credit resources. Further analysis reveals that the development of fintech can contribute to the improvement of the competitive environment of the credit market for different types of banks. Therefore, attention should be paid to the impact of the enabling effect of fintech on banking competition, and the development of banking fintech should be standardized and steadily promoted. At the same time, financial supervision should be strengthened to prevent disorderly competition, so as to continue to assist the high-quality development of enterprises.
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    Has the Implementation of the New Securities Law Improved the Information Environment of the Capital Market? An Interpretation Based on the Accuracy of Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts
    ZHANG Yan
    Contemporary Finance & Economics    2024, 0 (4): 58-70.  
    Abstract70)            Save
    The Securities Law, revised in 2019, has significantly increased the degree of punishment and deterrence of violations against laws and regulations. Taking A-share listed companies from 2016 to 2021 as samples, this paper tests the impact of the implementation of the new Securities Law on the accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecasts with the difference-in-differences method. The findings show that after the implementation of the new Securities Law, the accuracy of analysts’ predictions in the companies with weaker quality of information disclosure has greatly improved. In terms of economic significance, the range amounted to 39% of the mean value of analysts’ forecast deviations. After a series of endogeneity and robustness tests, these conclusions still stand. The mechanism analysis shows that the implementation of the new Securities Law improves analysts’ forecast accuracy by means of increasing the quality of corporate information disclosure rather than reducing the level of corporate risk-taking. The heterogeneity test reveals that after the implementation of the new Securities Law the improvement effect of analysts’ forecast accuracy is more significant in the state-owned enterprises, the enterprises with high goodwill, and those with less product market competition. This research conclusion reveals the spill-over effect of law amendments on other market participants. Therefore, the government should further improve the information environment of the capital market, and analysts should increase their attention to the enterprises with lower information disclosure quality.
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    Inflation Expectations and Corporate M&A and Reorganization: Synergistic Effect or Market Value Management?
    FANG Pei-jie, ZHU Si-yuan
    Contemporary Finance & Economics    2024, 0 (4): 71-84.  
    Abstract87)            Save
    M&A and reorganization serve as catalysts for corporate development and the adjustment of the national economic structure. Against the backdrop of rising global inflation, the impact of inflation on the mergers and acquisitions of Chinese companies is worth paying attention to. Based on the anticipated shifts in inflation from 2007 to 2021 and the M&A behaviors of non-financial companies listed on the A-share market in China, this paper conducts an empirical study. The findings reveal the following: firstly, when the inflation expectations increase, corporate equity will be undervalued due to the impact of inflation illusion on the investors, prompting firms to initiate M&A transactions to restore valuation; secondly, at times when inflation expectations are heightened, enterprises predominantly engage in non-industrial rather than industrial M&As. Although the frequency of initiated M&A deals escalates, the probability of their achievements decreases. After the M&A deals, the market performance somewhat shows improvements, whereas the operational performance experiences a decline. There is an increased likelihood of goodwill impairment charges within three years, suggesting that enterprises are primarily driven by market value management motives instead of the pursuit of synergistic effects when undertaking M&As; thirdly, for companies involved in the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and those with higher margin debt balances, the managerial opportunism is mitigated, the inflation illusion of investors is ameliorated, and the propensity to commence M&A transactions based on market value management incentives is reduced. Therefore, to propel high-quality development through corporate M&A activities, it is imperative to optimize expectation management, minimize informational asymmetries, advance the orderly opening of capital markets, refine short-selling mechanisms, and steer M&A activities towards the direction of industrial upgrading through regulatory guidance.
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    A Study of the Macroeconomic Effect and Predictive Ability of the Term Structure of China’s National Bond Interest Rate
    SUN Chen-tong, DANG Yin, MIAO Zi-qing
    Contemporary Finance & Economics    2024, 0 (3): 56-69.  
    Abstract138)            Save
    The correlation and leading relationship between the yield curve of China’s national bonds and the macroeconomic indicators have received widespread attention from macro-control and financial markets, of which the nonlinear and time-frequency characteristics are waiting for extended researches. Based on the yield curve data of the national bonds from 2006 to 2022, this paper employs a dynamic NS model to study the fitting term structure of national bond interest rate. The findings show that the term structure of national bond interest rate presents certain cyclical fluctuation characteristics. With the extension of maturity, the yield curve shows a gradual convergence trend. The quantile vector auto regression model is utilized to study the nonlinear impact of the term structure of the national bond interest rate on the macroeconomic indicators under different economic levels, it is found that the level factor and slope factor of the national bond yield rate mainly have negative effects on output and inflation. When the macro-economy is at different levels, this negative effect has nonlinear characteristics, which is especially greater in the periods of high economic growth and high inflation. The wavelet phase spectrum method is used to explore the dynamic changes of the forecasting ability of the term structure of national bond interest rate to the macroeconomic indicators in the time-frequency dimension. It is found that the horizontal factor and the slope factor have stronger forecasting ability to output, while the forecasting ability to inflation has weakened after 2019. Therefore, in the future, the construction of the national bond market should be promoted, the monitoring of the term structure of the national bond yield rates should be strengthened, and the fiscal and monetary policies should be optimized.
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    Market Valuation Effect of Enterprises’ Emission Reduction Commitments: Empowerment or Negative Empowerment
    CHENG Hong-wei, FENG Yi
    Contemporary Finance & Economics    2024, 0 (3): 70-82.  
    Abstract82)            Save
    Enterprises are the main body of action to achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, and the emission reduction commitment provides an important reference for investors to observe the future emission reduction situation of enterprises. However, the existing studies mainly focus on the historically disclosed information, such as ESG and CSR, ignoring the impact of forward-looking information such as emission reduction commitment on enterprise evaluation. Based on this, the relationship between emission reduction commitment and stock return is investigated by taking Chinese enterprises that publicly disclosed questionnaires in CDP as samples. The results show that enterprises’ emission reduction commitments can effectively reduce the stock return required by investors, and reveal the enabling effect of emission reduction commitment on market valuation. The analysis of the mechanism and heterogeneity reveals that the emission reduction commitment can affect stock returns by providing future incremental information, alleviating information asymmetry and reducing corporate risks. And the degree of the impact varied with the intensity of regional environmental regulations, the level of corporate carbon emissions and the confidence level of such commitments. Further study reveals that the emission reduction commitments of enterprises have industrial spillover effects, which can significantly improve the level of information disclosure of the emission reduction commitment of the competitors in the same industry. The analysis of the economic consequences reveals that the emission reduction commitment can not only effectively constrain the subsequent emission reduction behavior of enterprises, but also help to expand the scale of subsequent equity financing with the reduced capital costs brought about by the emission reduction commitment. Therefore, the management should actively disclose the emission reduction commitment, so as to keep its word and keep its promise. The government departments should also standardize information disclosure standards and give full play to the valuation role of the forward-looking information in the capital markets.
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    Self-Defense and Risk Contagion in Financial Sub-Markets under the Impact of Extreme Events
    SUI Jian-li, LI Yue-xin
    Contemporary Finance & Economics    2024, 0 (1): 59-74.  
    Abstract100)            Save
    Identifying the risk contagion path in financial sub-markets under the impact of extreme events has become an important part of financial risk prevention and control in the new era. Based on non-linear MSBIARCH model, this paper conducts a study to discriminate the volatility and contagion relationships and the volatility clustering trends among stocks, real estate, bulk commodities, exchange rates and bond markets. The findings show that, firstly, except for the one-way volatility contagion effects from the exchange rate market to the real estate market, from the bond market to the stocks, real estate, exchange rates markets and from the bulk commodity market to the bond market, there exists a two-way volatility contagion relationship between the other markets; secondly, the extreme risk events trigger the volatility contagion through market sentiment and expectations, the public emergencies generate volatility contagion based on market sentiment, and the policy announcements cause volatility contagion through fundamental factors and market expectations; finally, most of the volatility cluster trends in financial sub-markets originate from the volatility contagion in other sub-markets. The exchange rate market has weaker risk contagion ability, while the bulk commodity market and the bond market have stronger self-defense ability, which mainly carry out risk outputs. Therefore, it is necessary to further establish a full-process financial risk prevention and control system, improve the financial sub-market trading mechanism, strengthen communication and cooperation between markets, and reasonably guide public expectations, so as to enhance the anti-risk ability of financial markets and maintain the steady development of financial markets.
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    The Peer Effect of Share Repurchase Behavior of Listed Firms and Its Economic Consequences
    WANG Jun-yi, ZHAO Xiu-yun
    Contemporary Finance & Economics    2024, 0 (1): 75-85.  
    Abstract81)            Save
    Share repurchase is a kind of supply adjustment behavior in stock markets and has the advantage of being a price stabilizer. The existing researches mainly explore the motivations for corporate share repurchase from their own factors of the enterprises. Then, will the company’s stock repurchase decision be influenced by other companies in the same industry? What is the mechanism of this impact? By making use of the data from Chinese listed companies from 2005 to 2021, this study explores the peer effect and its impacting mechanism of share repurchase at the industry level. The findings show that there is a significant peer effect in the share repurchase behaviors of China’s listed firms, and there is also a peer effect in the amount and the frequency of share repurchases. The mechanism analysis reveals that the peer effect of share repurchase in listed companies is generated by the learning and imitating behaviors and the competitive pressure among the companies in the same industry. The moderating effect analysis reveals that the more abundant a company’s cash flexibility reserve is, the higher the media attention received by the peer companies, and the stronger the peer effect of share repurchase. The findings of the economic consequence analysis show that the share repurchases based on the peer effect have an increasing effect on corporate value. To this end, it is necessary to guide enterprises to make stock repurchase decisions that meet their substantive needs, while at the same time strengthening the supervision of the share repurchase behavior of the listed companies.
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    The Breaking of“Rigid Payment”in Bond Market and Enterprise Risk Information Disclosure
    BAI Jun, QIAO Jun, WU Shuang
    Contemporary Finance & Economics    2023, 0 (12): 53-67.  
    Abstract76)            Save
    Breaking the“rigid payment”of the bond market is an important measure of China’s financial market reform. This paper conducts a study based on the data of the listed companies from 2008 to 2021 and the difference-in-difference model. The findings show thatwhen the“rigid payment”of the bond market is broken, the level of enterpriserisk information disclosure will be significantly lowered. This negative effect is more significant among the enterprises with weaker implicit government guarantee capacity, with insufficient regional financial resources, with lower credit rating, or without third-party guarantee. The impact of the breaking of the“rigid payment”in the bond market on the internal mechanism of the bond-issuing enterprises to reduce risk information disclosure is realized through increasing the negative sentiment of investors and intensifying the financing constraints of enterprises, thus improving the motivation of enterprise information manipulation. The results of the economic consequence reveals that when the“rigid payment”is broken, although enterprises’ reducing the risk information disclosure will reduce the costs of corporate debt financing, the abnormal volatility of the capital markets will be intensified, which goes against the capital market stability. Therefore, efforts should be made to improve the bond risk hedging mechanism, to build a market-oriented credit mechanism, and to strengthen the supervision of enterprise text information, so as to alleviate the credit impact of the breaking of“rigid payment”on the market.
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    VAT Rate Simplification and Enterprise Equity Financing
    LI Ying, ZHANG Yu-feng
    Contemporary Finance & Economics    2023, 0 (12): 68-80.  
    Abstract61)            Save
    Raising the level of equity financing is the key path for enterprises to activate the capital market, increase the proportion of direct financing and improve the function of the capital market. Then, does the high efficient resource allocation effect of Value-added Tax (VAT) rate simplification help to promote corporate equity financing? By choosing the sample data of A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges from 2012 to 2021, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of the VAT rate simplification policy implemented in 2017 on corporate equity financing. The results show that the implementation of the simplified tax rate policy has significantly promoted the equity financing of enterprises; its influencing mechanism is to improve the internal value of enterprises and the information efficiency, then further improve the equity financing of enterprises. At the same time, the effect of the simplified tax rate policy on promoting equity financing of enterprises is more significant in the enterprises with higher credit discrimination and more applicable tax brackets. In addition, the good institutional environment of capital market has improved the effect of the VAT rate simplification policy on the promotion of corporate equity financing. Specifically, in the groups with a higher degree of marketization and higher degree of capital market openness, the positive effect between the simplified tax rate and corporate equity financing is more significant. Therefore, in the future, it is necessary to continue to optimize the VAT rate simplification policy, formulate differentiated tax supporting policies for different kinds of enterprises, play the combined role of tax reduction policies and the capital market system, and boost investors’ confidence, so as to promote the equity financing of enterprises.
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    Value Justification for Equity Pledge: From the Perspective of Business Reputation
    ZHAO Yi-yi, ZHENG Deng-jin, SONG Zi-wei
    Contemporary Finance & Economics    2023, 0 (11): 54-66.  
    Abstract89)            Save
    Referring to the hypothesis of“compensation justifying”, this paper believes that the controlling shareholders have the motive to conduct“value justifying”when they are trying to make equity pledge, i.e., in order to obtain higher financing, the controlling shareholder is motivated to assure the pledgee of the promising value of the pledged shares. The premium M&A is an effective way to increase market value, the measurement attribute of M&A goodwill represents the expected future value of the acquired assets. Does the controlling shareholder take advantage of the goodwill asset as a defense for equity pledge? The findings show that controlling shareholders are more likely to pledge their equity when the firm has good business reputation, business reputationis a justification for equity pledge. Especially in companies with poorer information environments, more powerful controlling shareholders and experiencing M&A of tunneling motivation, it is more common for controlling shareholders to use goodwill for equity pledge, and goodwill is more likely to be impaired in the future, indicating that controlling shareholders use goodwill as a false defense rather than a legitimate defense for equity pledge. The tests of internal demand, external environment, and pledged fund flow based on value defense also unanimously prove the above-mentioned pseudo defense behavior. In addition, compared to the bank pledgee, the securities firm pledgee has a lower level of risk prevention against the above-mentioned false defense behavior. The above conclusion indicates that the“double high”risks of“high goodwill”and“high pledge”are related to the arbitrage behavior of controlling shareholders, as well as the currentincomplete goodwill standards and equity pledge regulatory regulations. Therefore, while standardizing the principle of goodwillconfirming in mergers and acquisitions, it is particularly important to strengthen the prior supervision of equity pledge behaviors.
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    How Does Trading Mechanism Reform in Interbank Market Affect Interbank Financing Structure?
    ZHU Bo, XIA Cong, SUN Kai-si
    Contemporary Finance & Economics    2023, 0 (11): 67-79.  
    Abstract67)            Save
    The structure of interbank financing affects the financing cost and liquidity conversion of commercial banks and is an important factor for the stable operation of commercial banks. In 2015, the National Interbank Funding Center launched the anonymous order instruction book trading mechanism in parallel in the pledge repo market, which changed the single inquiry trading mechanism that has long been used in the interbank market. Then, what impact will the reform of the trading mechanism have on the interbank financing structure of commercial banks? The theoretical model including the guaranteed and non-guaranteed funding markets and search frictions and the double difference empirical testshow that the reform of the interbank market trading mechanism can reduce the cost of guaranteed financing and increase the proportion of guaranteed financing in interbank financing. Further analysis reveals that in the banks with a high proportion of initial interbank financing, fast initial asset growth, and a large scale of initial shadow banking business, as well as the banks with lower reserve adequacy, the non listed banks, and the small and medium-sized banks, their interbank financing structures are more significantly affected by the reform of trading mechanisms. The reform of the interbank market transaction mechanism can promote the liquidity creation of commercial banks. Therefore, we should continue to expand the coverage of anonymous click trading mechanisms, actively pay attention to the spillover effects of the changes in trading mechanisms, and further improve the reform of trading mechanisms in interbank financing markets.
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    Stock Issuance Registration System Reform, Investor Sentiment and IPO Underpricing
    LI Ke, LIN Ya-jia, QI Bao
    Contemporary Finance & Economics    2023, 0 (10): 58-71.  
    Abstract101)            Save
    With the comprehensive implementation of the registration system reform, how the reform of the issuing system and the trading system affects IPO stock pricing has become the focus of attention. Taking the reform of GEM registration system as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper constructs a DID model to explore the impact of investor sentiment on IPO stock pricing. The findings show that, compared with the approved main board market, investors are more enthusiastic to participate in the subscription of IPO stocks of registered GEM, and the investor sentiment can aggravate the underpricing of the registered GEM IPO stocks. Meanwhile, compared with the main board market, the IPO stock of the registered GEM presents more information contents, which proves that the changes of IPO underpricing after the reform of the registration system cannot be explained by information asymmetry. Further analysis shows that the registered GEM IPO stocks exhibit a more significant long-term reversal when investor sentiment drives up short-term stock valuations. Stocks with higher analyst attention, higher optimism, and wider divergent opinions are more affected by the registration system for IPO underpricing. The science and technology innovation board stocks with a more rational investor structure do not show a higher investor sentiment and IPO underpricing, which indicates that investor sentiment would affect the IPO pricing of the GEM. The above conclusion means that in the process of registration system reform, the government, enterprises, and investors not only need to understand the disclosure of relevant information of listed companies, but also need to closely monitor the emotional changes of stock investors, so as to promote the stable development of the capital market and the real economy.
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    Will Securities Margin Trading Affect Corporate Share Repurchase?
    LI Li, HE Wei-feng
    Contemporary Finance & Economics    2023, 0 (10): 72-84.  
    Abstract70)            Save
    The number of times and the scale of share repurchases in the Chinese capital markets have multiplied ever since the amended Company Law of 2018 loosened the limits on corporate share repurchases.Share repurchase have become an important financial activity of the companies. As an important institutional reform in China’s capital market, securities margin trading has brought changes to the trading mode of the capital market; will these changes affect the corporate share repurchase behaviors? This is a topic that deserves attention. Taking China’s A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2021 as research samples, this paper adopts the multi-time point difference-in-difference model to empirically test the influence of the margin trading system on corporate share repurchase. The findings show that securities margin trading has a significant promoting effect on corporate share repurchase behaviors. Specifically, after the implementation of the margin trading system, the share repurchase scale of the target company for margin trading is significantly larger than that of other listed companies. The heterogeneity analysis reveals that the promoting effect of margin trading on share repurchase has a significant impact on the companies with low stock liquidity, the companies with non-state-owned property rights, the companies located in areas with lower degree of marketization, and the companies with bear market trends. Therefore, the regulatory authorities should further encourage and guide companies involved in margin trading to implement share repurchases, the policy makers should adjust the restrictions on share repurchases based on the different risk characteristics of the company, and the listed companies should make good use of share repurchases as a kind of risk management tool.
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    Fintech, Information Quality and Herd Behavior of Institutional Investors
    WEI Cheng-long, GUO Bei-nan, GUO Cheng-cheng
    Contemporary Finance & Economics    2023, 0 (9): 55-68.  
    Abstract109)            Save
    The traditional research paradigm of the formation mechanism of herd behavior believes that incomplete information is an important factor causing the herd behavior of institutional investors. Whether the use of fintech in the capital market can improve the quality of information and thus reduce the herd behavior of institutional investors is of great significance for achieving high-quality development of the capital market. From the three dimensions of fintech attention, the number of fintech companies and fintech policy support, this paper comprehensively measures the level of fintech development in each province. Based on the empirical research of China's A-share listed companies from 2011 to 2021, the findings show that fintech has effectively reduced the herd behaviors of institutional investors, that the improvement of information balance, information disclosure, information transmission and information acquisition is an important way for fintech to play a role. The heterogeneity analysis reveals that fintech shows a stronger inhibitory effect on institutional investors' herding behavior in the companies located in the central and western regions and regions with lower financial marketization, the companies belonging to high-tech industries and the non-mainboard listed companies, as well as the sub-samples of sellers' herding. Further analysis shows that fintech can alleviate the negative economic effects such as lower stock pricing efficiency and crash risks caused by the herd behavior of institutional investors. Therefore, it is necessary to further strengthen the application of fintech in the capital market and provide modern scientific and technological support for creating a highly transparent information environment.
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    Does Monetary Policy Uncertainty Affect the Asset Securitization Behavior of Commercial Banks
    HUANG Fei-ming, YAN Wen-zhen
    Contemporary Finance & Economics    2023, 0 (9): 69-82.  
    Abstract72)            Save
    Asset securitization provides commercial banks with new sources of funds and enhances their ability to expand credit, thereby expanding their channels for credit financing and contributing to the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission. Conversely, whether the uncertainty brought about by frequent adjustment of monetary policy will affect the securitization behavior of commercial banks as transmission intermediaries is a question worthy of in-depth discussion. Using the data from the samples of 147 commercial banks in China from 2012 to 2021, this study examines the relationship between monetary policy uncertainty and the securitization behavior of commercial banks. The results indicate that the increase of monetary policy uncertainty has a positive promoting effect on commercial banks' asset securitization business. The mechanism analysis reveals that monetary policy uncertainty can hamper bank liquidity creation, increase bank credit risks, and reduce the scale of shadow credit, thereby promoting the development of asset securitization business. The heterogeneity analysis shows that the promoting effect of monetary policy uncertainty on asset securitization is significant in urban commercial banks, nationwide banks, and banks with high credit ratings. It has a promoting effect on both listed and non-listed banks, but the impact is more significant on non-listed banks. Furthermore, the development of digital finance will weaken the role of monetary policy uncertainty in promoting bank securitization. Therefore, during the periods of increasing monetary policy uncertainty, the asset securitization business is beneficial in mitigating the negative impact of policy uncertainty on banks and stabilizing their development.
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    Capital Market Openingand Quality of Enterprise Environmental, Social and Governance Information Disclosure
    BA Shu-song, CHAI Hong-rui, ZHAO Wen-yao, ZHANG Shuai
    Contemporary Finance & Economics    2023, 0 (7): 56-68.  
    Abstract79)            Save
    Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investments are important means for China to achieve green development, inclusive growth, and consolidating its international image as a responsible major country. At present, the disclosure of environmental, social and governance information in China is still not standardized, and ambiguity and selective disclosure behavior are still widely existed, seriously restricting the development of ESG investment practices. This paper conducts a double difference regression analysis based on the annual data of A-share listed companies from 2011 to 2020. The findings show that the opening of the Shanghai (Shenzhen)-Hong Kong Stock Connect can significantly improve the quality of the environmental, social, and governance information disclosure of the listed companies. In addition, the empirical results of time heterogeneity indicate that the improvement of information disclosure quality under the Shanghai (Shenzhen)-Hong Kong Stock Connect trading system becomes increasingly significant over time. The mechanism analysis reveals that the Shanghai (Shenzhen)-Hong Kong Stock Connect trading system can improve the quality of ESG information disclosure of listed companies through“foot voting”and the use of“external supervision”effects. Further research has found that while playing an external supervisory role, the Shanghai (Shenzhen)-Hong Kong Stock Connect trading system also plays a role in optimizing the external supervisory environment of China’s A-share market. The above analysis indicates that in the early stages of ESG ecological environment construction, China should fully attach importance to the important role of capital market openness in the quality of ESG information disclosure, and promote China’s ESG ecological environment construction through planned and step-by-step capital market openness.
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    Approval System Reform and Corporate Equity Value
    FU Wen-ji, GUI He-fa, WANG Hong-jian
    Contemporary Finance & Economics    2023, 0 (7): 69-81.  
    Abstract48)            Save
    This paper conducts an empirical study based on the data of A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets in China and incorporating the approval system reform into the real options analytical framework. The findings show that, firstly, the approval system reform can strengthen the motivation of corporate capital seeking profit, i.e., when faced with good investment opportunities, the approval system reform can induce firms to expand investment and execute growth options in a timely manner; when faced with poor investment opportunities, the approval system reform can induce firms to scale down investment and execute liquidation options in a timely manner; when faced with poor investment opportunities, the reform of the approval system can prompt firms to scale down their investments and execute liquidation options. Secondly, the reform of the approval system can promote the increase of corporate growth option value and liquidation option value. The extensibility tests show that the reinforcing effect of the approval system reform on firms’ capital-seeking-profitmotivation is more significant in the samples with more volatile investment opportunity information and downstream firms (i.e., the investment opportunity information is more dispersed). In terms of the path of action, firstly, the approval system reform can significantly reduce the time entrepreneurs spend on non-productive activities such as dealing with the government and increase the time entrepreneurs spend on business management; secondly, the approval system reform can significantly reduce the investment approval time of enterprises; thirdly, the empirical test based on the database of Chinese industrial enterprises shows that the approval system reform has significantly increased the degree of regional competition. The above findings imply that the government departments should continue to deepen the reform of the approval system and attach great importance to the important role played by information in the process of government decentralization, so as to continuously help enterprises achieve high-quality development.
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    Fintech, Resource Allocation and Banking Structure
    HE Xiao-gang, LUO Xin, GUO Xiao-bin
    Contemporary Finance & Economics    2023, 0 (6): 54-66.  
    Abstract52)            Save
    Whether fintech can promote effective competition in the traditional banking industry is of great significance for the financial industry to better serve the real economy. This paper conducts an empirical study with the data of 290 cities from 2011 to 2020. The findings show that Fintech leads to the exit of the outlets from the market through the competition effect and the empowerment effect, while inhibiting the entry of the outlets. In terms of banking heterogeneity, the resource allocation effect of fintech makes theexit of the large commercial bankoutlets in a larger scale, while the technology empowerment effect of fintech makes the exit of the listed bankoutlets ina larger scale. In terms of inter-city heterogeneity, in the cities with higher levels of economic development, lower population aging, stronger education levels and smaller loan-to-deposit ratios, the outlets are more impacted by fintech and the exit of the outlets are more significant. In terms of the impacting channels, fintech reduces households’ bank savings, optimizes household asset allocation, and leads to the exit of the inefficient outlets. Further study reveals that fintech reduces the concentration of banking market and optimizes the competition pattern of the financial industry by affecting the entry and exit behaviors of bank outlets. At the same time, fintech also compensates for the negative impact of the exit of outlets on the regional financial lending.
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    Availability of Traditional Finance, Development of Digital Finance and Digital Transformation of Enterprises
    LI Jian-pei, LIU Zhen-peng, GU Nai-hua
    Contemporary Finance & Economics    2023, 0 (6): 67-80.  
    Abstract89)            Save
    Enterprise digital transformation is an essential part of the digital China strategy and the only route promoting the high-quality economic development, while the stable and sufficient exogenous financing is a key factor affecting the digital transformation of the enterprises. Based on the data of A-share listed manufacturing enterprises in China from 2009 to 2020, this paper conducts anempirical study by integrating both traditional finance and digital finance into the analytic framework of the external motivations of enterprise digital transformation. The findings show that the improvement of the availability of traditional finance has effectively promoted the enterprise digital transformation, the reduction of financing constraints, financing costs, and information asymmetry is an important route for the traditional finance to play a role. The development of digital finance also boosts the enterprise digital transformation and complements the traditional finance. In the regions with relatively underdeveloped financial sectors, the traditional finance plays a even more critical role in promoting the enterprise digital transformation, just like a timely support; whereas in the regions with richer financial resources, digital finance is playing a more prominent role, just like icing on the cake. The promotion effect of the traditional finance is mainly embodied in the fine-quality enterprises with lower financial mismatch, higher production efficiency, or higher innovation levels; while the digital finance has a more inclusive promoting impact. Therefore, it is necessary to let the digital finance to play a better complementary role on the basis of strengthening the traditional finance, so as to collaboratively servethe digital transformation of the real enterprise and promote the high-quality economic development.
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    Strategic Alliances and Stock Price Crash Risk
    CHEN Hong, ZHAO Rong-quan, ZHU Zhen, HU Yao-dan
    Contemporary Finance & Economics    2023, 0 (5): 52-64.  
    Abstract176)            Save
    With the increasing number of listed companies joining strategic alliances, the capital market effects of strategic alliances and their function mechanisms have become significant research topics. This paper conducts an empirical test based on the related data of strategic alliance cooperation announcements issued by listed companies in China from 2009 to 2021. The findings show that joining strategic alliances can generally inhibit the future stock price crash risks faced by the enterprises. This inhibition effect is more significant in the samples with lower total factor productivity, higher financial risks, greater management power, and lower media attention, which indicates that improving enterprises'resource allocation efficiency andoperational stability, and strengthening internal and external supervision of the alliance are important paths for strategic alliances to reduce stock price crash risks. Further examination reveals that both equity strategic alliances and contractual strategic alliances can inhibit the stock price crash riskssignificantly. It is found after distinguishing the characteristics of the allied partiesthat this inhibition effect is more significant when the alliance object is a listed company and the nature of the enterprise is not a leading one. Therefore, the relevant government departments should create a favorable policy environment for listed companies to carry out strategic alliance cooperation, regulate the operation mechanism of the alliance, and give full play to the function of the strategic alliances to reduce the stock price crash risks and promote the steady and healthy development of the capital markets.
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    Corporate Digitalization and Leverage Manipulation
    LUO Hong, GUO Yi-ming, QIAO Hui-ying, WU Dan
    Contemporary Finance & Economics    2023, 0 (5): 65-78.  
    Abstract231)            Save
    Corporate leverage manipulating behaviors can increase both corporate financial risks and systematic financial risks. From the perspective of information complementarity, this paper conducts an empirical analysis. The findings show that corporate digitalization can significantly lower the degree of its leverage manipulation, and that the digitalization has a more significant inhibiting effect on their leverage manipulation of the enterprises with weaker relationships with banks. The results of a mechanism test show that corporate digitalization increases the public information transparency of the enterprises with weaker relationships with banks, release financing constraints and inhibit the leverage manipulation of the enterprises. Further analysis reveals that the media attention, R&D investment, and the strength of bank-firm relationships can play a moderating role in the impact of corporate digitalization on its leverage manipulation. The result of the economic consequence analysis indicates that corporate digitalization can adjust the leverage structure of the enterprises with weaker bank-firm relationship, promote the enterprises from virtual to real, optimize the efficiency of resource allocation of bank credit, and reduce bank dependence on collaterals. The above-mentioned conclusions not only clarify the channel through which corporate digitalization reduces corporate leverage manipulation from the perspective of information complementarity but also provide insights for promoting corporate digitalization, the development of bank-fintech, and the integration of digital technology and the real economy.
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    The Influence of Financial Literacy on Household Property Income: An Analysis fromthe Perspective of Common Prosperity
    TANG Dan-yun, LI Jie, WU Yu
    Contemporary Finance & Economics    2023, 0 (4): 55-67.  
    Abstract171)            Save
    It is the inevitable requirement for achieving common prosperity to increase the property income of residents. Based on China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) from 2013 to 2019 and using the Probit and Tobit models, this paper conducts an empirical study. The findings show that financial literacy is an important factor affecting household property income. The improvement of financial literacy can not only improve the probability of increasing household property income, but also improve the proportion of the total household property income and the property income in the household total income. This conclusion still holds after changing the explanatory variable and deleting the samples of families with financial industry professionals and after the endogenous test using the average financial literacy of other households at the same income level in the same community as the instrumental variable. Compared with non-financial property income, financial literacy has a more obvious impact on the household financial property income, especially the non-deposit financial property income. The result of the mechanism analysis shows that raising the proportion of risky assets, increasing the rate of return on risky assets, promoting the holding of investment in real estate, and promoting land renting are four channels through which financial literacy affects household property income. Further analysis reveals that the marginal effect of financial literacy is more pronounced on the property income of the groups with lower income, which indicates that the improvement of financial literacy can promote the faster growth of property income of the low income groups and help them to accumulate wealth quickly, thus contributing to the realization of common prosperity. The above conclusion suggests that to improve household financial literacy, especially the low income families,is an important means to narrow the income gap, which is significant in realizing common prosperity.
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    The Industrial-Financial Integration between Entity Enterprises and Stock Price Synchronicity
    XU Hui, ZHOU Xiao-hua
    Contemporary Finance & Economics    2023, 0 (4): 68-79.  
    Abstract110)            Save
    The basic function of capital markets is to realize the optimal allocation of resources by means of the stock price signal mechanism, and the key of stock price to play the optimal allocation function depends on its ability to reflect the real information of the company. From the perspective of stock price synchronicity, this paper conducts an empirical study by making use of the panel data of A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges from 2008 to 2020. The findings show that the industrial-financial integration can help suppress the stock price synchronicity of the real enterprises, and this phenomenon is more significant in private enterprises. Further examination reveals that the mechanism of the financial-industrial integration to inhibit the stock pricesynchronicity is to alleviate information asymmetry, attract investors’ attention and improve corporate governance. The shareholding of institutional investors and the media reports can strengthen the inhibition effect of the financial-industrial integration on stock price synchronicity. The above conclusions can explain the formation mechanism of stock price synchronicity from the perspective of the financial-industrial integration, reveal the special company information with micro-individual differences of the financial-industrial integration policies, help to deepen the theoretical cognition of the high stock price synchronicity of China’s capital markets and its information transmission mechanism, and provide new ideas for the re-understanding of the“view of information efficiency”and the reasonable evaluation of the micro-governance effect of the industry-finance integration model.
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    Digital RMB, International Economy-Trade Connection and Macroeconomic Fluctuation
    XU Wen-li, WANG Wen-fu
    Contemporary Finance & Economics    2023, 0 (3): 55-69.  
    Abstract182)            Save
    The internationalization and digitization of RMB is the significant driving force for China’s high-quality economic development, therefore, it has significant theratical and practical values to study the impact of digital RMB from the perspective of international economy. Based on the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the two countries with the characteristics of the liquidity service and asset service of digital RMB, this paper conducts an analysis of the international economic effect of the issuance and cross-border use of digital RMB. The findings show that the issuance and cross-border use of digital RMB can stabilize domestic economic fluctuations caused by exogenous technical and policy shocks, while strengthening economic and financial ties between China and foreign countries, which is mainly achieved by strengthening the ties between international trade and international finance. The difference in therestrictions on cross-border use of digital RMB has a limited impact on the domestic economy, but has a greater impact on the holdings of digital RMB in foreign countries and the net exports. The stronger the liquidity of digital RMB, the more stable the macroeconomic fluctuation caused by domestic shocks will be, but it may exacerbate international economic fluctuations. The above conclusions suggest that the People’s Bank of China can promote the pilots of cross-border use of digital RMB in a step-by-step and orderly manner, and pay attention to the dynamic adjustment of the cross-border use restrictions and the coordination of international economic policies.
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    Research on the Hype Effect before the Issuance of Convertible Bonds: the Forecasting Method Based on Machine Learning
    LIU E-ping, QIN Hao-yuan
    Contemporary Finance & Economics    2023, 0 (3): 70-81.  
    Abstract137)            Save
    This paper conducts an empirical study based on the analyst reports and stock market performance of the listed companies issuing convertible bonds and ordinary bonds prior to the announcement date from 2010 to 2022. The findings show that, compared to the listed companies issuing ordinary corporate bonds, there exist potential hype behaviors between the listed companies issuing convertible bonds and the analysts,which shapes a positive stock price effect. Specifically, the positive tone of the analyst reports significantly increase and the negative tone significantly decrease in the first 180 days of the announcement of convertible bond prospectus issued by listed companies, especially the responses in the first 90 days are more pronounced. At the same time, the average increase in P/B, stock price and circulation market valueis significantly greater in the first 20 days for the listed companies issuing convertible bonds, and the cumulative abnormal returns in the 20 days prior to the announcement date are significantly higher, which results in lower subsequent equity dilution costs for the listed companies issuing convertible bonds. The empirical results suggest that possible hype phenomenon by securities analysts may exist in the capital markets. The above findings unearth the share price anomalies and the transmission mechanism of share price changes prior to the announcement of convertible bond issuance by listed companies, while providing references for the regulation of capital market information disclosure and the protection of public investors.
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    Can the Development of Fintech Reduce Geographic Exclusion from Financing
    ZHANG Bing, SUN Ruo-han
    Contemporary Finance & Economics    2023, 0 (2): 55-67.  
    Abstract159)            Save
    The role of fintech in addressing the pain points of SME financing is becoming more prominent. From the perspective of information economics, thefintech development can relieve information asymmetry and reduce the geographic exclusion from SME financing. This paper conducts an empirical test by making use of the data of bank branches, the fintech development level data, and the data of enterprises in the National Equities Exchange and Quotations of SMEs from 2011 to 2020. The results indicate that geographical distance increases the financial exclusion of SMEs, while fintech development decreases the geographical exclusion of SME financing. However, geographical distance remains a significant factor influencing SME financing. The result of the heterogeneity analysis reveals that when there is a higher proportion of large banks and a higher degree of bank competition, as well as in economically backward and transportation inconvenient areas, the positive effect of fintech development on the geographical exclusion of SME financing is more pronounced. The result of the mechanism analysis reveals that the development of fintechcan solve the problem of information asymmetry between banks and enterprises, which is essential for fintech to reduce the geographical exclusion of SME financing. Therefore, we should both strengthen the research and application of fintech and optimize the layout of physical bank branches, so as to promote the financial resources to serve SMEs and to address the“last mile”of financial inclusion.
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    Financial Mismatch and Enterprise Financialization
    GUI Yan, LV Jiang-lin, WANG Yang
    Contemporary Finance & Economics    2023, 0 (2): 68-80.  
    Abstract186)            Save
    The financial mismatch existing in China’s financial system will theoretically promote enterprises to increase financial investment through portfolio selection. This paper conducts anempirical research based on the data of non-financial listed companies in China from 2007 to 2019. The findings show that financial mismatch has significantly promoted the financialization of enterprises in general, and that it mainly promotes the investment in long-term financial assets and quasi financial assets. The former is more prominent in the enterprises with strong profitability, while the latter is only significant in the enterprises with weak profitability and in the state-owned enterprises. The result of the mechanism test shows that financial mismatch promotes enterprise financialization by improving financing constraints and expanding the income gap between finance and entities, but this impact on different types of financial assets shows heterogeneous motivation. For example, under the influence of financial mismatch, enterprises will increase investment in long-term financial assets, which is out of the motive of“preventing savings”to ease financing constraints and the motive of active“profit seeking”to obtain excess financial returns, while increasing the allocation of quasi-financial assets is only out of the passive“profit seeking”motive forced by the decline of the return on the investment in the main business. Further inspection reveals that the relaxation of interest rate control and the development of digital inclusive finance can both weaken the enterprise financialization under the effect of financial mismatch, but mainly weaken the allocation of the quasi-financial assets. In the future, it is necessary for the relevant departments to further promote the marketization of the financial system, improve the efficiency of financial resource allocation, and guide finance to return to the real economy.It is also necessary to promote the development of digital inclusive finance and the construction of the multi-level and full chain capital markets, promote the accurate implementation of financial services, and adapt to the high-quality economic development.
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    Effective Paths in Central Bank Communication: Identification Based on Contents and Forms
    SUI Jian-li, LIU Bi-ying, LIU Jin-quan
    Contemporary Finance & Economics    2023, 0 (1): 57-69.  
    Abstract73)            Save
    This paper conducts a theoretical analysis of information friction and belief shock as well as a test with a SVAR model. The findings show that the fundamental shock can increase the expected macroeconomic indicator bias and the belief shock can decrease the expected macroeconomic indicator bias, and that the fundamental shock mainly acts on the actual macroeconomic indicators, while the belief shock mainly acts on the expected macroeconomic indicators. Further, the text recognition technology for big data is used to identify the contents of central bank communication both in the written form and verbal form, thus to identify the effective path of action of central bank communication. The results of the analysis show that central bank communication can indirectly act on expectation bias by moderating the beliefs of micro-subjects. Among them, the written-form communication and the narratives about economic fundamentals are suitable for regulating the output beliefs; and the verbal-form communication and the narratives about monetary policy tendencies are suitable for regulating inflation beliefs; the written-form communication is more effective than the verbal form in regulating expectation bias, and the narratives about economic fundamentals are more effective than the narratives about monetary policy tendencies. Therefore, central bank communication needs to play a full role in regulating the beliefs of micro agents and correcting expectation bias, especially the written-form communication and the narratives about economic fundamentals.
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    Heterogeneous Influences of Public and Semi-Public Equity on Enterprise Innovation
    LIU Ye, LU Pu-ying, WANG Meng
    Contemporary Finance & Economics    2023, 0 (1): 70-81.  
    Abstract48)            Save
    The start-up enterprises realize their entrepreneurial exit and obtain liquidity by transferring their equity to public equity or semi-public equity. However, the different effects of the two exit modes on corporate innovation are often ignored. Taking the venture enterprises supported by China's risk capitals as the sample, this paper conducts an empirical study based on the difference-in-difference and the difference-in-difference-in-difference models. The findings show that both transferring to public equity and semi-public equity can significantly promote corporate innovation, and the transfer to public equity has a stronger promoting effect, which is contrary to the information confidentiality hypothesis proposed by foreign countries. The result of the mechanism test shows that transferring to public equity and semi-public equity can alleviate external financing constraints and provide financial support for enterprises. However, the enterprises transferring to semi-public equity have stronger earnings management motives in order to transfer to public equity in the future, while the enterprises transferring to public equity have weaker earnings management motivation in order to maintain their reputation and facilitate refinancing. Therefore, compared to transferring to semi-public equity, transferring to public equity can better motivate enterprises to invest in long-term innovation activities. Moreover, the fact that the enterprises with strong innovative ability are more willing to transfer to public equity indicates that the proprietary costs of information disclosure do not offset the advantages of public equity in such aspects as financing, etc..
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