15 November 2024, Volume 0 Issue 11
Research and Interpretation of the Spirit of the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the CPC
Building a High-Standard Socialist Market Economy in all Respects and Reforming the Fiscal and Tax Systems
DENG Li-ping, CHEN Li
2024, 0(11):  3-11. 
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Building a high-standard socialist market economy in all respects is an important reform goal made clear at the Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, which highlights the importance of further deepening the reforms in all respects in the new journey, with the reform of the economic system as the leading force. Xi Jinping’s economic thought, especially the related exposition on the socialist market economic system, is the basic guideline for comprehending the profound connotation of building a high-standard socialist market economic system in all respects. The profound connotation should be grasped at five aspects: first, insisting on the decisive role of the market in resource allocation; second, insisting on the close integration of the socialist system with the market economy; third, insisting on the construction of a socialist market economic system supported by the institutions; fourth, insisting on the establishment of a high-standard socialist market economic system; and fifth, insisting on the completion of a comprehensive high-standard socialist market economic system. In the practical path, the fiscal and tax system is a key basic system for the socialist market economy, therefore, a new deployment of fiscal and taxation system reform is needed from the three aspects: the budget system, the tax system, and the relationship between the central and local finances to improve the macroeconomic regulation and optimize government governance, so as to contribute to the building of a high-standard socialist market economy in all respects.
Theoretical Economics
The Real Economic Effects of Electronic Consumption Vouchers: Evidence from Unionpay Platform
XI Ming-ming, LIU Xu-yan, LI Ting
2024, 0(11):  12-26. 
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Government consumption vouchers serve as an important economic stimulus tool designed to invigorate the market and provide necessary support to businesses that are affected by economic pressures. In order to thoroughly investigate the actual effects of this policy tool, this paper conducts a quasi-natural experiment with the distribution of electronic consumption vouchers by various levels of governments in Jiangxi Province. Taking the data from 264, 000 active merchants contracted with Jiangxi Unionpay platform from 2019 to 2022 of totaling 968, 000 observation values as the samples, this study constructs multi-period difference-in-differences models and triple difference models to examine the impact of government-issued electronic consumption vouchers on the operations of physical merchants and their mechanisms of action, as well as to discuss the social welfare effects of government electronic consumption vouchers. The results show that: firstly, the leverage effect of government e-coupon on the real economy is between 1.308~3.250 times, and the elasticity coefficient of the coupon is between 0.152~0.395. Secondly, e-coupon mainly have a positive impact on the operation of physical merchants through the three mechanisms: price discrimination, small profits and good sales, and brand effects. Thirdly, the unique way of issuing and canceling government e-vouchers will neither cause the crowding out of consumer welfare nor increase the financial burden. Therefore, to further stimulate domestic market demand in the future, it is recommended to refine the distribution channels and mechanisms of government electronic consumption vouchers, ensure the accurate allocation of consumer vouchers to the target groups and efficient conversion, thereby maximizing their economic and social benefits.
House Price Expectation Shocks, Endogenous Uncertainty and Aggregate Demand Shortage
GUO Ling-yi, XU Wen-li
2024, 0(11):  27-41. 
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The downward trend of economic expectations is an important reason for the lack of aggregate demand in China. Based on China's macroeconomic quarterly data from the year 2009 to 2022, this paper analyzes the impact of the expectations of housing price shocks on the aggregate demand and its transmission mechanism by constructing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that includes the irrational expectations shocks of housing prices and the endogenous uncertainty. The results indicate that: firstly, a downward expectation shock of housing prices will lead to a decline in aggregate demand, the transmission mechanism including the illusion of housing wealth, the financial accelerator, and uncertainty. Secondly, the uncertainty mechanism amplifies the suppressive effect of the negative housing price shock on the aggregate demand, resulting in a more significant decline in total demand. Thirdly, there is an asymmetric effect between the negative and positive expectation shocks of housing prices on aggregate demand, with the impact of price decline expectations being more substantial. Fourthly, in the face of a negative expectation shock, the macroprudential policy tools that focus on the observed housing price expectations are more effective in smoothing aggregate demand fluctuations. Therefore, government departments should strengthen the expectation management, implement policies tailored to individual cities, and adopt more policy tools to boost the real estate demand and reduce uncertainty.
Public Economics & Administration
The Impact of Value-Added Tax Retention and Refund Policies on Cross Regional Capital Flows: Evidences from the Remote Investment of Listed Companies
LI Hua, GU Lan-juan, WANG Ai-ai
2024, 0(11):  42-56. 
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As the highlight of the combined tax and fee support policies, the VAT retention and refund is a key measure to help enterprises alleviate difficulties, which has an important impact on the cross regional flow of capital. To this end, based on a quasi natural experiment of the 2018 value-added tax retention and refund policy, this paper makes use of the manually collected data of the registered locations of the subsidiaries of listed companies in China from 2014 to 2019 to empirically analyze how the value-added tax retention and refund policy affects the cross regional capital flows. The findings show that the VAT retention and refund policy has promoted the investment of listed companies in other places and effectively promoted the cross regional flow of capital. This effect is more obvious in non-state-owned enterprises and enterprises in highly competitive industries, and it has a positive impact on enterprises with different levels of VAT retention and refund. This effect is stronger in enterprises with no tax retention and refund or lower scale of tax retention and refund. The mechanism analysis reveals that VAT retention and refund policy can impact across regional capital flows mainly by alleviating financing constraints and reducing the perception of uncertainty. Therefore, it is recommended to continuously optimize the VAT retention and refund policy to create a better business environment for enterprises to invest in other regions, precisely implement the tax support policies to improve the targeting of policy support, strengthen the synergy between fiscal and financial policies to stabilize the expectations of market development.
Modern Finance
Signaling Effects, Economic Uncertainty, and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy
CHEN Guo-jin, GUO Jun-ying, ZHAO Xiang-qin
2024, 0(11):  57-69. 
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The effectiveness of monetary policy is closely related to the stability of the macro economy. Therefore, a thorough discussion of the effectiveness of monetary policy is of great significance for achieving China's economical goal of stable growth. By constructing a three-period model incorporating the banking and enterprise sectors, this paper studies the intrinsic relationship between signal effect, economic uncertainty, and the effectiveness of monetary policy, and conducts empirical tests using the instrumental variable partial projection method. The findings show that, first, there exists a signal effect of monetary policy in China, and the monetary policy released by the central bank will affect the public expectations of the economic fundamentals, thus influencing the effectiveness of monetary policy. Second, the loose monetary policy can stimulate economic growth by extending the credit term, however, the existence of the signal effect will weaken the effect of monetary policy on regulating the credit term structure, further reducing the effectiveness of monetary policy. Third, when economic uncertainty intensifies, the signal effect will be amplified, which will further weaken the ability of monetary policy to regulate the credit term structure and reduce its role in stabilizing the economy. Therefore, the People's Bank of China should improve its expectation management, increase public confidence in the effectiveness of monetary policy, and at the same time unblock the regulatory channels of monetary policy's credit term structure, especially in the context of higher economic uncertainty.
The Research on Policy Semantics and Expectation Channels of the Central Bank's Forward Guidance
NIE Li, SHI Kai
2024, 0(11):  70-83. 
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Forward guidance is an innovative monetary policy tool used to manage expectations. Clarifying the policy semantics and mechanism of the central bank's forward-looking guidance is of great significance for improving the monetary policy framework. This paper adopts the text analysis techniques to measure the policy semantics of China's monetary policy forward guidance from the two dimensions: policy orientation and economic prospects. It also separates interest rate expectations and term premiums through a macro financial affine term structure model. On such a basis, this study explores the transmission mechanism of the forward guidance using an exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model and a time-varying Granger causality test. The findings show that the forward guidance emphasizes more the noise reduction function of the expectation channel, but cannot affect the interest-rate expectations through transmitting new information. The policy-inclination forward guidance can more effectively fulfill the noise reduction function, whereas the economic-outlook forward guidance cannot guide the direction of future interest rate expectations. Further analysis reveals that an increase in the semantic similarity of policy-inclination forward guidance can significantly reduce the volatility of short-term interest rate expectations, and that economic-outlook forward guidance is more likely to influence the medium and long-term interest rates through uncertainty channels dominated by term premiums. Therefore, it is recommended that the People's Bank of China should steadily advance forward communication, refine the cross-cycle policy design based on expectation management, and construct an expectation management system framework with Chinese characteristics.
Business Administration
Social Effects of Local Government Debt Management: From the Perspective of Private Enterprises' Social Responsibility
LIAO Wang, LI Wen, TANG Xue-song
2024, 0(11):  84-97. 
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The problem of local governments defaulting on payments to private enterprises has been a major obstacle on the road to building a new type of close and upright government-business relationship. Using the State Council's special supervisory action to clean up government arrears as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper applies the difference-in-difference method to systematically examine how the settlement of local government arrears exerts a positive social effect and influences the assumption of social responsibility by private firms, intending to provide empirical evidence on how the governance of government debt positively induces the private economy. The findings show that this special action has significantly improved the level of social responsibility of private enterprises in the supervised areas. This action has enhanced the willingness and ability of private enterprises to undertake social responsibility by increasing the public attention to them and alleviating their internal liquidity constraints, and has had a positive impact on corporate charitable donations. The heterogeneity test reveals that the above-mentioned effect is more significant in regions with lower social credit levels, poorer market environments, and in private enterprises that lack political connections. Therefore, in order to promote the healthy development of the non-public economy and build a new type of government-business relationship, the governance of local government arrears should be institutionalized and long-term. While building a service-oriented government, private enterprises should be encouraged to actively fulfill their social responsibilities and play a positive role in social development.
How to Depict the Firm Life Cycle Smoothly: Optimization of Measurement Methods Based on Growth Rate Classification Method
ZOU Wen-li, XIE Xiao-ping, YE Jun-kai
2024, 0(11):  98-110. 
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Accurately measuring corporate life cycle is of great significance for enterprises to make management decisions. However, corporate life cycle obtained on the basis of the existing methods exhibits significant fluctuations, leading to frequent jumps or reversals in a short period of time, making it difficult to smoothly depict the process of cyclical development and changes in the enterprises. By comprehensively analyzing the vertical and horizontal changes of enterprises, this paper sets a broad range of maturity periods rationally for enterprises, optimizes the growth rate classification method, and proposes a more economically logical method for measuring corporate life cycle. Using the data from A-share listed companies from 1991 to 2021, it applies the above methods to measure the life cycle of enterprises. The results show that the improved method can more reasonably reflect the gradual and stable changes of enterprises, effectively reduce the jumping and reversal phenomena in the measurement of corporate life cycle, more comprehensively depict the changes of corporate life cycle, and more in line with the logic of enterprise development. The above research results not only provide theoretical researchers with a new method for measuring the life cycle of enterprises, but also provide new references for future empirical researches. At the same time, they can help enterprise managers to more clearly identify the life cycle stage of the enterprise and provide strong support for them to make business decisions.
Industry & Trade
Does Digital Products Import Promote the Quality Improvement of Export Products of Multi Product Enterprises?
LU Jing, WANG Tao-xuan, XIAO Qing-lan
2024, 0(11):  111-127. 
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The digital economy creates new opportunities for the high-quality development of China's exports. Accelerating the development of digital trade and fully leveraging the technological advantages of digital products are important ways to promote the upgrading of the quality of exported products by enterprises. Multi product enterprises are the main form of China's foreign trade enterprises, occupying a dominant position in export activities. Using the micro matching data from the China Customs Database, China Patent Database, and China Industrial Enterprise Database from 2000 to 2014, this study examines the impact of digital product imports on the quality of exported products from multi product enterprises and its underlying mechanisms. The findings show that the import of digital products can generate significant product quality upgrading effects, prompting enterprises to improve the quality of their exported products. The mechanism analysis reveals that the“cost saving effect”, the“digital technology spillover effect”, the“product conversion effect”, and the“intermediate goods import selection effect”caused by the import of digital products are the main mechanism paths for enterprises to improve the quality of their exported products. The heterogeneity results show that the higher the knowledge endowment of enterprises, the more obvious the product differentiation, and the higher the development level of export destination countries, the more significant the quality upgrading effect brought by imported digital products. Further analysis shows that the entry of new products, the exit of old products, the improvement of the existing product quality, and the internal resource reallocation all have an impact on the export product quality of multi product enterprises. Focusing on the dynamic discovery of the existing product quality, it can be seen that the import of digital products can improve the export product quality of non core products, bridge the quality gap between products of different natures, and drive the overall improvement of product quality. Based on the above conclusions, it is necessary to actively guide enterprises to import digital products, fully leverage the role of digital products in product quality and upgrading export trade models, and promote China's high-level opening-up to the outside world.
A Study on the Evolution of the Collaborative Network of Energy Policy Implementers in China
WANG Zhan-Jie, LIU Liang-can
2024, 0(11):  128-139. 
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The design and implementation of energy policies are crucial for achieving carbon neutrality and constructing a green and low-carbon modern energy system. Enhancing the synergistic cooperation among the implementing bodies is a key path to improve the efficiency of energy governance. Taking the energy policy documents issued in China from 1979 to 2022 as research samples, this study constructs a Chinese energy policy implementation body coordination network, and applies the synergy theory and the social network analysis method to draw the coordination network diagrams of implementing bodies at different stages. It also explores the coordination patterns and their evolutionary rules among the energy policy implementing bodies based on a“breadth-intensity”two-dimensional coordination matrix. The results show that the density of the main body coordination network is continuously increasing, the cohesion of the network is strengthening, the stability of the network is improving, and the structure of the network is transitioning from loose to balanced. In addition, the National Development and Reform Commission, the National Energy Administration, the Ministry of Finance, and the local Development and Reform Commission are important bodies for the implementation of energy policies and have played a significant role in the formulation and implementation of energy policies by providing organizational coordination and connectivity. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the coordination mechanism of the implementation subject of energy industry policies, improve the efficiency of energy governance, actively play the guiding function of the core subjects, and focus on the connectivity function of the weak subjects.
Modern Accounting
The Market Reaction to the Security Representative Litigation System
CHEN Liang-yin, HUANG Jun
2024, 0(11):  140-151. 
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Based on the“Provisions on Several Issues Concerning Representative Litigation in Securities Disputes”implemented by the Supreme People's Court on July 31, 2020, this paper studies the market response to the securities representative litigation system. The findings show that the securities representative litigation system will generate positive market reactions. The mechanism test reveals that the implementation of the securities representative litigation system not only significantly increases the number of independent directors resigning and expressing dissenting opinions, but also strengthens the supervision of small and medium-sized shareholders over the company. Therefore, the securities representative litigation system will have a positive market response. The heterogeneity analysis reveals that in companies with lower proportion of independent directors, higher agency costs, and lower shareholding ratio of institutional investors, the positive market response generated by the securities representative litigation system is more significant. Therefore, it is necessary to actively guide investors to use the securities representative litigation system to safeguard their own rights and interests, and the regulatory authorities should further strengthen the support role of the investment service centers for the securities representative litigation system.
A Study of the Impact of ESG“Greenwashing”on Corporate Performance
ZOU Yan-fen, XIAO Zhi-wen
2024, 0(11):  152-164. 
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Practicing ESG is an important way to promote the green and low-carbon development of the economy and society. Taking the A-share listed companies from 2011 to 2021 as the research samples, this paper empirically tests the impact of ESG“greenwashing”on enterprise performance and its mechanism on the basis of measuring enterprise ESG“greenwashing”. The findings show that ESG greenwashing, social information greenwashing, and corporate governance greenwashing can all significantly reduce a company's financial and market performance, while environmental responsibility greenwashing will significantly improve a company's financial and market performance. The analysis of the influencing mechanism reveals that ESG greenwashing can weaken a company's operational capabilities, damage its reputation, and increase its financing constraints, thereby reducing its performance. The heterogeneity analysis reveals that in non-state-owned enterprises and enterprises with higher analyst attention, ESG“greenwashing”has a more significant effect on the declining corporate performance. To this end, enterprises, the society and the government should work together to promote the construction of China's distinctive ESG governance system.