关键词: FTA, 关税减让, 非关税壁垒消除, 二元边际, 高维固定效应

Abstract: Based on the data at HS4 digits level between China and 147 countries / regions from 2002 to 2017, this paper makes use of the high-dimensional fixed-effect Poission pseudo maximum likelihood estimation technology to estimate the impacts of import trade liberalization (tariff concessions and elimination of non-tariff barriers) resulted from Free Trade Agreements (FTA) on the binary margins of China’s export. The results show that the elimination of non-tariff barriers caused by FTA has promoted the export intensive margin, whereas both the tariff concessions and elimination of non-tariff barriers have restrained the export extensive margin. The promotion effect of FTA on the export intensive margin and the inhibiting effect of FTA on the export extensive margin have obvious hysteresis effect, but as time goes on, the promotion effect of FTA on the export intensive margin is gradually increasing, while the inhibiting effect on the export extensive margin is gradually weakened. Five years after FTA took effect, the general promotion effect of it on export is around 22%. The results of the heterogeneity analysis indicate that the promotion effect of FTA on the intensive margin has only occurred on the industrial products, the developing countries, and FTAs with long durations, while the restraining effect on the extensive margin has occurred on the industrial goods, the agricultural goods, the countries with different levels of development and FTAs with different durations.

Key words: FTA, tariff concessions, removal of non-tariff barriers, binary margin, high dimensional fixed effects