当代财经 ›› 2021, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (4): 102-111.

• 产业与贸易 • 上一篇    下一篇

贸易摩擦和新冠疫情双重冲击下全球价值链重构趋势与中国对策

袁振邦1, 张群群2   

  1. 1.中国社会科学院大学 商学院,北京 102488;
    2.中国社会科学院 财经战略研究院,北京 100006
  • 收稿日期:2020-11-24 出版日期:2021-04-15 发布日期:2021-05-26
  • 通讯作者: 袁振邦,中国社会科学院大学博士研究生,主要从事产业经济学研究,联系方式327289521@qq.com
  • 作者简介:张群群,中国社会科学院研究员,博士生导师,经济学博士,主要从事产业经济学研究。
  • 基金资助:
    中国社会科学院基础研究学者资助项目“反价格垄断的经济理论研究”

The Trend of Global Value Chain Reconstruction under the Double Impacts of Trade Frictions and Covid-19 Pandemic and China’s Countermeasures

YUAN Zhen-bang1, ZHANG Qun-qun2   

  1. 1. University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 102488;
    2. National Academy of Economic Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100006, China
  • Received:2020-11-24 Online:2021-04-15 Published:2021-05-26

摘要: 2016年以来全球贸易摩擦的不断加剧和2019年底至今新冠疫情在全球的持续蔓延对全球价值链协作造成双重冲击。对此期间相关国家间关税水平和进出口数据变化的分析,以及对各国政府出台的产业政策的比较研究表明,在贸易摩擦和新冠疫情的双重冲击下,全球价值链出现重构趋势,一些国家的政府越来越将国际政治、国家安全和社会应急考虑置于经济利益考虑之上,积极推动部分产业链回流本国,追求供应链的多元化,加强对本国相关产业的保护。美国出于维护其世界头号经济强国地位的考虑,更是企图对中国进行全产业链封锁。面对这些挑战,我国亟需制定新的有针对性的全球价值链战略,积极采取稳链强链补链措施,稳住低端产业、强化中端产业、补齐高端产业,打造完整而有韧性的产业链供应链,巩固和发展全产业链优势,确保我国经济持续健康发展;巩固亚洲价值链命运共同体;大力发展壮大中国倡导的“一带一路”价值链;以合作共赢理念处理与美国等西方主要经济体的关系,强化全球价值链相互依存度。

关键词: 全球价值链, 产业链, 贸易摩擦, 新冠疫情

Abstract: The ever intensified global trade frictions since 2016 and the continuous spread of the Covid-19 pandemic over the world since the end of 2019 have caused double impacts on the current collaboration of global value chain (GVC). This paper conducts an analysis of the tariff levels among the relevant countries and the changes in the import and export data during this period, and makes a comparative study of the industrial policies promulgated by the governments of different countries. The findings show that, under the double impacts, there appears a trend of reconstruction of the global value chain. The governments of some countries are increasingly placing their considerations of international politics, national security and social emergency above their economic interests; they are actively promoting the return of some industrial chains to their home countries, pursuing diversification of supply chains, and strengthening the protection of the related industries in their own countries. The United States even attempts to block the whole industrial chains of China in order to maintain its position as the world’s No. 1 economic power. Faced with such challenges, China should waste no time to formulate new and targeted global value chain strategy, take measures to stabilize, strengthen and supplement its global value chain, stabilize the low-end industry, strengthen the middle-end industry and supplement the high-end industry, create a complete and tenacious supply chain for the industry chain, consolidate and develop the advantages of the full industrial chain, guarantee the sustainable and healthy development of China’s economy, consolidate the Asian value chain and the community of common future, strive to develop and grow the Belt and Road value chain initiated by China, handle the relationship with USA and other major western economic entities with the concept of cooperation and mutual benefits, and enhance the interdependency of the global value chain.

Key words: global value chain, industrial chain, trade friction, Covid-19 pandemic

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