强势美元会影响人民币的货币锚地位吗——基于“一带一路”沿线35个国家的实证分析

当代财经 ›› 2021, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (1): 60-72.

强势美元会影响人民币的货币锚地位吗——基于“一带一路”沿线35个国家的实证分析

周阳

济南大学商学院,山东济南 250002

收稿日期:2020-09-02 出版日期:2021-01-15 发布日期:2021-01-19
作者简介:周阳,济南大学副教授,经济学博士,主要从事汇率与货币政策研究,联系方式chowyoung96@163.com。
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金一般项目“汇率弹性增强背景下我国货币政策的有效性及其提升策略研究”(17BJY196)

Will the Strong Dollar Influence RMB’s Currency Anchor Status?An Empirical Analysis Based on 35 Countries along the Route of the Belt and Road

ZHOU Yang

Jinan University, Jinan 250002, China

Received:2020-09-02 Online:2021-01-15 Published:2021-01-19

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 在强势美元背景下,基于“一带一路”沿线35个国家的数据,通过一个扩展的实证模型研究了强势美元对人民币的货币锚地位的影响。研究发现：美元走强时有11个国家会选择锚定人民币来稳定本币汇率,美元走弱时人民币的影响力较小;人民币、美元及欧元为“一带一路”沿线国家货币圈主要的货币锚。进一步的分析表明：在强势美元周期下,人民币的货币锚地位有显著提升,而美元的货币锚地位趋于下降。贸易关系及贸易竞争的存在是人民币的货币锚地位提升的原因,此外,人民币作为货币锚的区域仍限于东盟、东亚及南亚国家,对其他“一带一路”沿线国家的影响偏弱。因此,加强国际政策协调,持续深化贸易合作及推动大宗商品的人民币计价,有助于提升人民币的货币锚地位并进而推进人民币国际化。

关键词: 强势美元, 货币锚地位, "一带一路", 人民币国际化

Abstract: Under the background of strong US dollar, this paper studies the influence of strong US dollar on RMB’s currency anchor status with an extended empirical model based on the data of 35 countries along“the Belt and Road”. The results indicate that, when US dollar is strong, 11 countries will choose the anchoring RMB to stabilize their currency exchange rates; when the dollar is weak, the influence of RMB is small. RMB, US dollar and Euro are the main currency anchors in the currency circle of the countries along the route of the Belt and Road. The findings of further research show that, in the strong dollar cycle, RMB’s currency anchor status is significantly improved, while US dollar’s currency anchor status is declined. The existence of trade relationship and trade competition is the reason for the improvement of RMB’s currency anchor status, in addition, RMB as a currency anchor is still limited to the areas of ASEAN, East Asian and South Asian countries, and its influence on other countries along the route of the Belt and Road is relatively weak. Therefore, strengthening international policy coordination, continuously deepening trade cooperation and promoting RMB pricing of staple commodities will help to enhance RMB’s currency anchor status and promote RMB internationalization.

Key words: strong dollar, currency anchor status, the Belt and Road, RMB internationalization

中图分类号:

F822.1

周阳. 强势美元会影响人民币的货币锚地位吗——基于“一带一路”沿线35个国家的实证分析[J]. 当代财经, 2021, 0(1): 60-72.

ZHOU Yang. Will the Strong Dollar Influence RMB’s Currency Anchor Status?An Empirical Analysis Based on 35 Countries along the Route of the Belt and Road[J]. Contemporary Finance & Economics, 2021, 0(1): 60-72.

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