新兴国家资本流出激增性质的转变

当代财经 ›› 2021, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (1): 49-59.

新兴国家资本流出激增性质的转变

杨逸

陕西师范大学国际商学院,陕西西安 710119

收稿日期:2020-10-23 出版日期:2021-01-15 发布日期:2021-01-19
作者简介:杨逸,陕西师范大学讲师,经济学博士,主要从事国际金融研究,联系方式yangyi@snnu.edu.cn。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目“资本管制对资本急停的影响机制研究：基于预期理论的微观视角”（71704099）; 国家自然科学基金项目“文化距离影响中国海外直接投资企业创新的理论机制及实证研究”（71904113）; 教育部人文社会科学研究项目“文化冲突对海外直接投资企业技术创新的微观研究：机理研究与实证分析”（19YJC790045）

On the Natural Transition of Capital Outflow Surges in Emerging Countries

YANG Yi

Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, China

Received:2020-10-23 Online:2021-01-15 Published:2021-01-19

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于面板平滑转换回归模型对39个新兴国家1998—2017年跨境资本流动季度数据进行分析,结果发现：第一,国际金融市场高风险时期,新兴国家资本流出激增以短期资本流出为主;而在国际金融市场低风险时期,新兴国家资本流出激增则主要体现为对外直接投资增加。第二,随着经济实力的提升,新兴国家资本流出激增不再都是具有避险性质的资本外逃,有时它表现为具有投资性质的对外投资增加。第三,由于对外直接投资和对外短期投资受本国经济增长的影响方向相反,新兴国家资本流出激增性质的转变导致本国经济增长对新兴国家资本流出激增产生了非线性的影响。因此,新兴国家不必对资本流出激增过度恐慌,应区分资本流出激增的不同性质,坚定实施对外开放战略和趋利避害政策,维持跨境资本流动和经济基本面的稳定,促进本国经济结构不断优化升级。

关键词: 资本流出激增, 国际金融市场风险, 经济增长

Abstract: This paper makes an analysis of the quarterly data of the cross-border capital flows of 39 emerging countries from 1998 to 2017 with the panel smooth transition regression model. The findings show that, firstly, during the high-risk periods of the international financial markets, the capital outflow surges are mainly in the form of short-term capital outflow; while during the low-risk periods of international financial markets, the capital outflow surges of the emerging countries are mainly in the form of the increase of OFDI. Secondly, with the improvement of economic strength, the capital outflow surges of emerging countries are no longer always reflected as capital flight with the purpose of hedging, sometimes it manifests as an increase of outward investment with investment nature. Thirdly, as the impact of domestic economic growth on outward direct investments is opposite to that on outward short-term investment, the natural shift of the capital outflow surges in emerging countries has produced a non-linear impact of domestic economic growth on capital outflow surge in emerging countries. Therefore, the emerging countries should not be too panic when faced with the capital outflow surges, they should distinguish the different natures of the capital outflow surges, resolutely implement the opening-up strategy and the policies that seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, maintain the stability of cross-border capital flows and economic fundamentals, and promote the continuous optimization and upgrading of their domestic economic structure.

Key words: capital outflow surge, international financial market risk, economic growth

中图分类号:

F831.5

杨逸. 新兴国家资本流出激增性质的转变[J]. 当代财经, 2021, 0(1): 49-59.

YANG Yi. On the Natural Transition of Capital Outflow Surges in Emerging Countries[J]. Contemporary Finance & Economics, 2021, 0(1): 49-59.

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