关键词: 社会保障,农村,消费效应,面板门槛回归

Abstract: This paper evaluates empirically the impact of the rural social security system on the rural residents’consumption with the Panel Threshold Regression model based on the data of 30 provinces (cities) in the mainland of China from 2004 to 2015. The results show that the rural social security system has triple threshold effect on the consumption of rural residents: when the rural per capita transfer income is below 388 yuan, the elasticity coefficient of rural residents’ consumption is 0.218; when the rural per capita transfer income is between 388 yuan to 741 yuan, the elasticity coefficient increases to 0.232; when the rural per capita transfer income is between741 yuan to 2080 yuan, the elasticity coefficient increases to 0.248; and when the rural per capita transfer income is beyond 2080 yuan, the elasticity coefficient decreases to 0.236. In terms of regions, the rural social security in the eastern, central and western regions also has a nonlinear positive impact on the consumption of rural residents, of which the consumption promotion effect in the western region is the strongest, followed by the eastern region, and the central region is the lowest. Therefore, it is recommended to further increase the transfer income of the rural residents, strengthen the support of rural social security in the western region, and enhance the rural human capital, so as to boost rural residents’ consumption and promote the economic growth in rural areas.

Key words: social security; rural areas; consumption effect; panel threshold regression