关键词: 城乡居民基本养老保险, 基金收支, 马尔可夫模型

Abstract: Based on the related data from the China Statistical Yearbook (2012-2023), this study conducts an analysis of the income and expenditure of the urban and rural resident pension insurance fund and the status of insured population in Fujian Province. The findings reveal that the expenditure risk of the urban and rural resident pension insurance fund in Fujian Province is relatively higher, and the per capita benefit level has remained below the national average. Despite the overall aging level of Fujian Province’s population being lower than the national level, its aging degree of the insured population in the urban and rural resident pension insurance is higher than the national average, indicating that the urban and rural resident pension insurance in Fujian is facing the risk of“systemic aging.”Furthermore, by applying the Grey-Markov combined model, it forecasts and analyzes the financial income and expenditure of the urban and rural resident pension insurance fund in Fujian Province, the results show that the current fund income and expenditure are still in a surplus state, but the current surplus rate is declining. This suggests that Fujian’s urban and rural resident pension insurance may face the risk of insufficient funds to cover the expenditures in the future. Therefore, it is recommended that the relevant departments strengthen the management of fund income and expenditure, strive to improve the level of fund income, continuously observe the trend of changes in the number of insured persons, adjust strategies in a timely manner to adapt to changes in population structure, effectively prevent and control the risk of fund income and expenditure imbalance, and ensure the sustainable development of the basic pension insurance system for urban and rural residents in Fujian Province.

Key words: urban and rural resident basic pension insurance, fund income and expenditure, metabolic GM(1,1) model, Markov model