经济政策不确定性对企业债务期限结构的非线性影响

江西财经大学学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (4): 38-50.

经济政策不确定性对企业债务期限结构的非线性影响

王伟^1,2,3, 易卓睿⁴

1.中国农业银行博士后科研工作站,北京 100005;
2.清华大学经济管理学院博士后流动站,北京 100084;
3.中国人民大学财政金融学院,北京 100872;
4.交通银行博士后科研工作站,上海 200336

收稿日期:2022-11-30 出版日期:2023-07-25 发布日期:2023-07-28
通讯作者: 易卓睿,交通银行博士后,中国人民大学经济学博士,主要从事金融风险管理研究,联系方式yizhuorui@126.com。
作者简介:王伟,中国农业银行、清华大学博士后,中国人民大学经济学博士,主要从事企业债务研究。

The Nonlinear Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Corporate Debt Maturity Structure

WANG Wei^1,2,3, YI Zhuo-rui⁴

1. Agricultural Bank of China, Beijing 100005;
2. Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084;
3. Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872;
4. Bank of Communications, Shanghai 200336, China

Received:2022-11-30 Online:2023-07-25 Published:2023-07-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于代理成本理论和权衡理论构建经济政策不确定性影响企业债务期限结构的理论模型,然后使用2007—2021年中国上市公司季度数据进行实证检验。理论模型的结论是,银行在经济政策不确定性较低时向企业发放长期贷款、在经济政策不确定性较高时向企业发放短期贷款。实证研究支持理论模型的结论,随着经济政策不确定性升高,长期债务占比先上升后下降。考虑到测量误差、遗漏变量等内生性问题后,上述结论仍然显著成立。异质性分析发现,经济政策不确定性对长期债务占比的影响由正转负的临界值在小企业、民营企业、市场化程度较低地区较小;在大企业、国有企业、市场化程度较高地区较大。

关键词: 经济政策不确定性, 企业债务期限结构, 企业异质性

Abstract: Based on the agency cost theory and the trade-off theory, this paper firstly builds a theoretical model to illustrate the effects of economic policy uncertainty on corporate debt maturity structure. Then it uses the quarterly data of China’s listed companies from 2007 to 2021 to conduct empirical tests. The findings of the theoretical model indicate that banks issue long-term loans tofirmswhen economic policy uncertainty is low and short-term loans to firms when economic policy uncertainty is high. The empirical study confirms the conclusion of the theoretical model: with the raising of economic policy uncertainty, the proportion of long term debt will first rise then descend. Considering the endogenous problems such as measurement error and omitted variables, the above conclusion is still significantly valid. The heterogeneity analysis reveals that the critical value of the effects of economic policy uncertainty on the proportion of long-term debt from positive to negative is lower in small firms, private firms and firms located in the regions with low degree of marketization, while it is higher in large firms, state-owned firms and firms located in regions with higher degree of marketization.

Key words: economic policy uncertainty, corporate debt maturity structure, firm heterogeneity

中图分类号:

F275.1

王伟, 易卓睿. 经济政策不确定性对企业债务期限结构的非线性影响[J]. 江西财经大学学报, 2023, 0(4): 38-50.

WANG Wei, YI Zhuo-rui. The Nonlinear Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Corporate Debt Maturity Structure[J]. Journal of Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, 2023, 0(4): 38-50.

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