城镇职工基本养老保险基金的支付风险测度研究

江西财经大学学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (1): 65-75.

城镇职工基本养老保险基金的支付风险测度研究

孙荣

重庆工商大学数学与统计学院/社会经济应用统计重庆市重点实验室,重庆 400067

收稿日期:2022-04-13 修回日期:2022-09-30 发布日期:2023-02-15
作者简介:孙荣,重庆工商大学教授,主要从事社会养老保险精算与金融统计研究,联系方式sun74052000@163.com。
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金项目“弹性延迟退休城镇职工基本养老保险账户的长期精算平衡研究”（19BTJ020)

Research on the Payment Risk Measurement of the Basic Endowment Insurance Fund for Urban Employees

SUN Rong

Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing 400067, China

Received:2022-04-13 Revised:2022-09-30 Published:2023-02-15

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 人口老龄化、生育率下降等因素导致我国很多城市养老基金面临不同程度的支付风险。为了精准度量养老基金支付风险的大小,对基金的运行进行有效监管,本文假定基金收入与支出相依条件下借助Copula函数对收入账户与支出账户的依存关系进行分析,建立回归模型,在此基础上引用金融风险测度的方法,提出新的一定置信度下的两种养老金账户支付风险测度方法,运用我国1997—2020年的相关经济指标数据对不同置信水平的2022—2040年城镇职工基本养老保险基金的支付风险进行了测算并提出了相应的对策。

关键词: 城镇职工, 基本养老保险基金, 支付风险, 风险测度

Abstract: Due to the impacts of the aging of population, the decline of fertility and other factors, the urban pension funds in China's many cities are facing different degrees of payment risks. In order to accurately measure the payment risks of pension funds and effectively supervise the operation of funds, this paper makes an analysis of the dependent relationship between the income accounts and expenditure accounts with the help of Copula function under the assumption that the income and the expenditure of the funds are dependent, then it establishes a regression model. On this basis, it employs the financial risk measurement method and proposes two new methods to measure the pension account payment risks with a certain degree of confidence. Finally, it makes use of the relevant economic index data of China from 1997 to 2020 to measure the payment risk of the basic old-age insurance account of urban employees from 2022 to 2040 with different degrees of confidence, and it also puts forward the corresponding countermeasures.

Key words: urban employees, basic old-age insurance fund, payment risk, risk measurement

中图分类号:

F840.612

孙荣. 城镇职工基本养老保险基金的支付风险测度研究[J]. 江西财经大学学报, 2023, 0(1): 65-75.

SUN Rong. Research on the Payment Risk Measurement of the Basic Endowment Insurance Fund for Urban Employees[J]. Journal of Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, 2023, 0(1): 65-75.

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