人口老龄化背景下社会养老金模式探索及支出规模预测

江西财经大学学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (1): 76-86.

人口老龄化背景下社会养老金模式探索及支出规模预测

王云多

黑龙江大学经济与工商管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨 150080

收稿日期:2020-11-30 修回日期:2021-09-23 出版日期:2022-01-25 发布日期:2022-02-22
作者简介:王云多,黑龙江大学副教授,经济学博士,主要从事人口与劳动经济研究,联系方式nmwyd@163.com。
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金项目“生育率下降与预期寿命延长双重约束下养老保险制度可持续性研究”（16BRK016）

Exploration of Social Pension Model and Prediction on Expenditure Scale under the Background of Population Aging

WANG Yun-duo

Heilongjiang University, Harbin 150080, China

Received:2020-11-30 Revised:2021-09-23 Online:2022-01-25 Published:2022-02-22

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 以国家定义的贫困线为社会养老金待遇标准,考虑为城乡低收入人群设计一种非缴费型的社会养老金制度,计算我国社会养老金支出规模。使用国家统计局公布的不同年龄人口预期余命,从现收现付角度使用替代福利方案评估当代劳动力人口的负担。设定人均国内生产总值的6.6%为贫困线,考虑到我国正在出台的延迟退休方案,将退休年龄增加到65岁,并假设那些领取正规养老金的人不包括在内,预计在2050年前,年均国内生产总值的0.7%~1%将用于平衡社会养老金支出。考虑到更慷慨的待遇、更低的退休年龄和低于预期的生育率,养老金支出规模可高达国内生产总值的4.5%。

关键词: 社会养老金, 人口老龄化, 支出规模

Abstract: Taking the poverty line defined by the state as the standard for social pension benefits, this paper considers to design a non-contributory social pension system for the urban and rural low-income groups, so as to calculate the expenditure scale of China’s social pension. It makes use of the data of future life expectancy issued by the State Statistics Bureau to estimate the burden of the contemporary labor force population with the alternative welfare schemes from the angle of pay-as-you-go. Given the 6.6 percent of GDP per capita as the poverty line, taking into account China’s ongoing plan to delay the retirement age to 65, and assuming that those with formal pensions are not included, it is estimated that 0.7-1 percent of GDP will be used to balance social pension expenditure every year before 2050. However, the expenditure scale of pension could be as much as 4.5 per cent of GDP, thanks to more generous benefits, a lower retirement age and a lower-than-expected birth rate.

Key words: social pension, aging population, expenditure scale

中图分类号:

F840.612

王云多. 人口老龄化背景下社会养老金模式探索及支出规模预测[J]. 江西财经大学学报, 2022, 0(1): 76-86.

WANG Yun-duo. Exploration of Social Pension Model and Prediction on Expenditure Scale under the Background of Population Aging[J]. Journal of Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, 2022, 0(1): 76-86.

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