关键词: "一带一路", 粮食贸易, 竞争力, 影响因素

Abstract: This paper makes an analysis of the influencing factors on grain competitiveness and grain trade between China and other countries along the“the belt and road”,which is conductive for China to improve the foreign grain trade environment and to enhance its own competitiveness.By making use of the grain trade data of China and the other countries along“the belt and road”from 2012 to 2017,this paper calculates the indexes of trade integration and comparative advantages,constructs a bilateral gravity model and a hurdle model,and conducts a quantitative test.The findings show that China has heavy grain trade with only part of the countries along“the belt and road”and enjoys a certain competitiveness on some specific grain varieties towards some individual countries,but has no regional overall competitive advantage.Fine economic development level and cultural exchange degree have significantly promoted the development of the bilateral grain trade,while geographical distance has significantly hindered the bilateral grain trade;the amount of bilateral grain trade between the countries with good agricultural and natural resources and China is much higher.Besides,the institutional distance is an important factor affecting China’s grain export decision,and the economic development level,the geographical distance and the cultural exchange degree have all affected the trade amount of China’s grain export.Therefore,China should continue to promote the strategy of “the belt and road”initiative,choose the trade partners according the principle of comparative advantages,strengthen the infrastructure construction to reduce the negative influences brought by geographical distance,actively promote the“people-to-people bonds”and the“cultural connection”,strive to achieve“policy coordination”,and ease the hindering effect of the institutional distance on the trade.

Key words: "the belt and road", grain trade, competitiveness, influencing factors