新农保政策对农村居民消费的影响评估

江西财经大学学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (3): 61-72.

新农保政策对农村居民消费的影响评估

何晖¹, 李小琴²

1.湘潭大学公共管理学院,湖南湘潭 411105;
2.湖南财政经济学院工程管理学院,湖南长沙 410205

收稿日期:2019-10-29 修回日期:2019-12-30 出版日期:2020-05-25 发布日期:2020-12-14
通讯作者: 李小琴,湖南财政经济学院讲师,经济学博士,主要从事住房保障、区域经济学研究,联系方式lixiaoqin723@163.com。
作者简介:何晖,湘潭大学副教授,管理学博士,主要从事社会保障理论与实践研究。
基金资助:
湖南省社会科学基金重点项目(17ZDB029)

Evaluation of the Impact of the New Rural Social Pension Insurance Policy on Rural Residents’ Consumption

HE Hui¹, LI Xiao-qin²

1. Xiangtan University,Xiangtan 411105;
2. Hunan University of Finance and Economics,Changsha 410205,China

Received:2019-10-29 Revised:2019-12-30 Online:2020-05-25 Published:2020-12-14

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于2010—2012年和2010—2018年CFPS两组面板数据,通过PSM-DID消除新型农村社会基本养老保险政策的“自选择效应”和内生性问题,对新农保政策可能带来的农村居民消费方面的影响进行评估。研究结果表明,新农保政策对于农村居民消费的促进效应主要体现在短期,且这种短期的消费促进效应主要表现在60周岁及以上的农村居民样本中。从消费结构来看,新农保政策主要促进了农村居民的食品消费、衣着消费以及日常消费等三类基本生活消费。同时,新农保政策对农村居民消费的影响还存在着区域异质性,其中对西部欠发达地区的消费促进效应显著,而随着区域经济发展水平逐渐提高促进效应逐渐减弱。

关键词: 新农保, 消费结构, 收入效应, 预期效应

Abstract: Based on the two groups of panel data of CFPS in 2010-2012 and 2010-2018,this paper first eliminates the“self-selection effect”and the endogenous problem of the new rural social basic pension insurance policy through PSM-DID,then it conducts an assessment of the impact that may brought about by the new rural social pension insurance policies on the consumption of the rural residents.The research results show that the facilitating effect of the new rural social pension insurance policy on rural residents’consumption is mainly reflected in the short-term,and this short-term consumption promotion effect is mainly manifested in the samples of rural residents aged 60 and above.From the perspective of consumption structure,the new rural social pension insurance policy has mainly promoted the three types of basic living consumption,i.e.,the rural residents’food consumption,clothing consumption,and daily consumption.At the same time,there still exists some regional heterogeneity in the impact of the new rural social pension insurance policy on rural residents’consumption,of which,the promoting effect on the consumption in the western underdeveloped areas is significant,but this promotion effect will be gradually weakened as the regional economic development level gradually increases.

Key words: new rural social pension insurance, consumption structure, income effect, expected effect

中图分类号:

F842.612

何晖, 李小琴. 新农保政策对农村居民消费的影响评估[J]. 江西财经大学学报, 2020, 0(3): 61-72.

HE Hui, LI Xiao-qin. Evaluation of the Impact of the New Rural Social Pension Insurance Policy on Rural Residents’ Consumption[J]. Journal of Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, 2020, 0(3): 61-72.

参考文献

[1] 范辰辰,陈东.新型农村社会养老保险的减贫增收效应——基于“中国健康与营养追踪调查”的实证检验[J].求是学刊,2014,(6):62-70.
[2] 张跃华,王翌宵.新型农村社会养老保险对贫困群体生活的影响——基于CHARLS 2011~2015面板数据的分析[J].保险研究,2019,(5):69-80.
[3] House J.S.,Landis K.R.,Umberson D.Social Relationships and Health[J].Science,1988,241(4865):540-545.
[4] Schwarzer H.,Querino A.C.Non-contributory Pensions in Brazil:The Impact on Poverty Reduction[R].Geneva,Extension of Social Security Paper,2009.
[5] Johnson J.K.M.,Williamson J.B.Do Universal Non-Contributory Old-Age Pensions Make Sense for Rural Areas in Low-Income Countries?[J].International Social Security Review,2006,59(4):47-65.
[6] Barrientos A.What Is the Impact of Non-Contributory Pensions on Poverty? Estimates from Brazil and South Africa[R].CPRC Working Paper,2003.
[7] Kakwani N.,Subbarao K.Ageing and poverty in Africa and the Role of Social Pensions[R].United Nations Development Programme Working Papers,2005.
[8] Kotlikoff L.J.Testing the Theory of Social Security and Life Cycle Accumulation[J].The American Economic Review,1979,69(3):396-410.
[9] Gale W.G.The Effects of Pensions on Household Wealth:A Reevaluation of Theory and Evidence[J].Journal of Political Economy,1998,106(4):706-723.
[10] Lloyd-Sherlock P.,Barrientos A.,Moller V.,SaboiaJ.Pensions,poverty and wellbeing in later Life:Comparative Research from South Africa and Brazil[J].Journal of Aging Studies,2012,26(3):243-252.
[11] Hubbard R.G.,Skinner J.,Zeldes S.P.Precautionary saving and social insurance[J].Journal of political Economy,1995,103(2):360-399.
[12] Cagan P.The Effect of Pension Plans on Aggregate Saving:Evidence from a Sample Survey[M].New York:Columbia University Press,1965.
[13] 程令国,张晔,刘志彪.“新农保”改变了中国农村居民的养老模式吗?[J].经济研究,2013,(8):42-54.
[14] 岳爱,杨矗,常芳,田新,史耀疆,罗仁福,易红梅.新型农村社会养老保险对家庭日常费用支出的影响[J].管理世界,2013,(8):101-108.
[15] 沈毅,穆怀中.新型农村社会养老保险对农村居民消费的乘数效应研究[J].经济学家,2013,(4):32-36.
[16] 张川川,John Giles,赵耀辉.新型农村社会养老保险政策效果评估——收入、贫困、消费、主观福利和劳动供给[J].经济学(季刊),2015,(1):203-230.
[17] 朱诗娥,杨汝岱,吴比.新型农村养老保险对居民消费的影响评估[J].学习月刊,2019,(11):60-69.
[18] 薛惠元.新型农村社会养老保险减贫效应评估——基于对广西和湖北的抽样调研[J].现代经济探讨,2013,(3):11-15.
[19] 李珍,赵青.我国城镇养老保险制度挤进了居民消费吗?——基于城镇的时间序列和面板数据分析[J].公共管理学报,2015,(4):102-110+158.
[20] 马光荣,周广肃.新型农村养老保险对家庭储蓄的影响:基于CFPS数据的研究[J].经济研究,2014,(11):116-129.
[21] 黄睿.新型农村社会养老保险对高龄农民家庭消费的影响——基于2011~2013年CHARLS数据的研究[J].经济体制改革,2016,(6):84-92.
[22] 贺立龙,姜召花.新农保的消费增进效应——基于CHARLS数据的分析[J].人口与经济,2015,(1):116-125.
[23] 张晔,程令国,刘志彪.“新农保”对农村居民养老质量的影响研究[J].经济学(季刊),2016,(2):817-844.
[24] 张芳芳,陈习定,林学宏,周秝宸.“新农保”对农村居民消费的影响——基于浙江省的调查数据[J].农业经济问题,2017,(8):17-24+110.
[25] 薛惠元,仙蜜花.新型农村社会养老保险地区差距研究——基于东中西部8个新农保试点县的比较分析[J].经济体制改革,2014,(1):72-76.
[26] 薛智韵,余桔云.新农保对农村老年居民消费的影响研究[J].江西社会科学,2019,(4):72-80.
[27] 王芳,李锐.“新农保”对“家庭养老”替代性的地区差异分析——基于CHARLS数据的实证研究[J].保险研究,2016,(12):114-123.