关键词: “一带一路”,基础设施,需求拉动,产能过剩,投入产出

Abstract: “One Belt and One Road”is a great strategic initiative to achieve the Chinese Dream. Since it is proposed, many domestic scholars have been making lots of qualitative analysis of its significances and influences; however, there are short of quantitative analysis concerning its pulling effect on China’s economy and the differences of the benefit degree among the different domestic industries. Starting from the infrastructure investment of the“One Belt and One Road”and based on the non-competitive input-output table of WIOD, this paper establishes a Leontief demand pull model to measure the short-term pulling effect of the infrastructure investment of the countries along the route on China’s different departments. The results show that total investment of 1 dollar in each sector of local electricity, gas and water supply, communication and transportation, post and telecommunications will at the most promote China’s total product by 0.3072 dollar, 0.3979 dollar and 0.4141 dollar, the GDP by 0.0780 dollar, 0.1051 dollar and 0.103 dollar. Significant pulling effect can be found in China’s industries, such as metal smelting, electrical appliances manufacturing, transportation equipment, machinery manufacturing, financial service, commercial services, wholesale, communication and transportation, and so on.

Key words: One Belt and one Road; infrastructure; demand pull; excess production capacity; input-output