关键词: 地方税收,税收增长,政治周期,官员晋升激励,共享税

Abstract: From the perspective of political cycle, the growth of local tax is affected by the two aspects: the promotion incentive of local officials and the risk aversion. In the year when the local Party Congress is held, the total local tax will have a significant growth. The political cycle has no significant impact on the local exclusive tax, but the income growth of the local shared tax and its VAT, the individual income tax and the corporate income tax will present periodical changes along with the holding of the congress of Party representatives. It can be seen that there is a significant relationship between the growth of China’s local taxes and the political cycle. In order to safeguard and regulate the growth of local government revenue, China can make improvements from such five aspects as speeding up the process of taxation legislation, clarifying the expenditure responsibilities of the central and local governments for the financial funds of the tax departments, adjusting the indicators for performance appraisal of official political promotion, perfecting the local tax system, and improving the non-tax revenue management system.

Key words: political cycle; local tax; promotion incentive; the shared tax; tax revenue growth