当代财经 ›› 2020, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (4): 3-16.

• 理论经济 •    下一篇

机器人技术进步对劳动力市场的冲击——基于动态随机一般均衡模型的分析

韩民春, 韩青江   

  1. 华中科技大学 经济学院,湖北 武汉 430074
  • 收稿日期:2019-11-29 修回日期:2020-02-12 出版日期:2020-04-15 发布日期:2020-12-11
  • 通讯作者: 韩青江,华中科技大学博士研究生,主要从事劳动经济学研究,联系方式273317136@qq.com。
  • 作者简介:韩民春,华中科技大学教授,博士生导师,经济学博士,主要从事劳动经济学研究
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金重点项目“工业机器人替代与中国就业市场的失衡和再平衡问题研究”(17AJY007)

The Impact of Robot Technology Progress on Labor Market: An Analysis Based on Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model

HAN Min-chun, HAN Qing-jiang   

  1. Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China
  • Received:2019-11-29 Revised:2020-02-12 Online:2020-04-15 Published:2020-12-11

摘要: 机器人技术进步表现出多元化的特征,对劳动力市场的影响表现为全要素生产率冲击、资本要素替代冲击和投资转化率冲击三种形式。在动态随机一般均衡的分析框架下,通过综合引入机器人技术进步的三种冲击研究了机器人技术进步对劳动力市场要素的影响与作用机制。研究发现,三种类型的技术进步对劳动者就业的短期影响波动较大,长期将导致就业减少,但对劳动者工资有持久的正向作用。征收资本所得税、扩大政府支出以及实施积极的货币政策短期内对稳定就业有积极作用,但是长期内对稳定就业无效,只可作为稳定就业的短期宏观调控手段。

关键词: 机器人, 技术进步, 劳动力市场, 宏观调控, 动态随机一般均衡

Abstract: The progress of robot technology shows the characteristics of diversification, and its impact on the labor market is manifested in three forms, i.e., total factor productivity shock, capital factor substitution shock and investment conversion rate shock. Under the framework of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium, this paper studies the influence and mechanism of robot technology progress on labor market factors by comprehensively introducing the three impacts of robot technology progress. It is found that the short-term effect of the three types of technological progress on the employment of workers fluctuates greatly, while the long-term effect will lead to the decline of employment, but has a lasting positive effect on the wages of workers. The collection of capital income tax, the expansion of government expenditure and the implementation of a proactive monetary policy can play a positive role in promoting the stability of employment in the short term, but have no effect on the stability of employment in the long term, which can only be used as a short-term macro-control means to stabilize the employment.

Key words: robot, technology progress, labor market, macro-control, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium

中图分类号: