关键词: 财税政策组合, 数实技术融合, 协同效应, 供给激励, 需求牵引

Abstract: Promoting the deep integration of the digital and real economies is a strategic priority for building a modern industrial system anchored in the real sector. Under fiscal constraints, optimizing fiscal and tax policy mixes to improve incentive effectiveness has become an important policy issue. Using panel data on Chinese A-share listed firms from 2010 to 2024, this study examines the effects of fiscal and tax policy mixes on digital-real technology integration and explores the underlying mechanisms. The results show that supply-side policy instruments, including tax incentives and fiscal subsidies, promote digital-real technology integration through an R&D incentive mechanism, while the demand-side instrument of government procurement operates through a commercial credit channel. Combining supply-side and demand-side policy instruments overcomes the limitations of single-policy interventions and generates significant synergistic effects. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the effectiveness of different policy mixes varies with regional digital infrastructure and the business environment, as well as firms’ supply chain structure and life-cycle stage. Further analysis shows that policy sequencing plays an important role in determining policy effectiveness. A“supply first, demand later”sequence significantly promotes digital-real technology integration, whereas a“demand first, supply later”sequence and simultaneous implementation are less effective. These findings suggest strengthening cross-departmental policy coordination to improve the overall effectiveness of fiscal and tax policies, establishing a tiered and differentiated policy support system to achieve more precise policy targeting, adopting a gradual“supply first, demand later”implementation strategy to optimize policy sequencing, and enhancing firms’ capacity to respond to policy incentives, thereby facilitating the transformation of external policy support into endogenous innovation momentum.

Key words: fiscal and tax policy mix, digital-real technology integration, synergistic effects, supply-side incentives, demand-side pull