当代财经 ›› 2026, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (5): 3-18.

• 理论经济 •    下一篇

数字人民币创新机制与经济波动:国内经济周期与国际经贸联动

郭柃沂1, 殷伟策2, 许文立3   

  1. 1.深圳市自然资源和不动产评估发展研究中心,广东 深圳 518000;
    2.西南财经大学 经济与管理研究院,四川 成都 611130;
    3.澳门城市大学 金融学院,澳门 999078
  • 收稿日期:2025-08-26 修回日期:2025-11-09 出版日期:2026-05-15 发布日期:2026-05-22
  • 通讯作者: 殷伟策,西南财经大学博士研究生,主要从事宏观经济学研究,联系方式e15105219851@163.com。
  • 作者简介:郭柃沂,深圳市自然资源和不动产评估发展研究中心助理研究员,经济学博士,主要从事宏观经济学研究;许文立,澳门城市大学助理教授,经济学博士,主要从事宏观经济学研究。
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金重点项目“世界经济不确定性的测量、对中国金融风险效应及传导机制研究”(22AZD120)

Digital RMB Innovation Mechanism and Economic Fluctuations: Domestic Economic Cycles and International Economic and Trade Linkages

Guo Ling-yi1, Yin Wei-ce2, Xu Wen-li3   

  1. 1. Shenzhen Development Research Center for Natural Resources and Real Estate Assessment, Shenzhen 518034;
    2. Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu 611130;
    3. City University of Macau, Macau 999078, China
  • Received:2025-08-26 Revised:2025-11-09 Online:2026-05-15 Published:2026-05-22

摘要: 在全球数字货币快速发展与人民币国际化进程协同推进的背景下,对数字人民币创新机制的宏观经济影响进行评估具有重要意义。将数字人民币视为兼具支付便利性与流动性服务的数字化法定货币工具,基于两国开放经济动态随机一般均衡模型的研究表明,数字人民币创新机制可通过降低支付摩擦和优化资产组合,促进贸易与资本流动联动。数字人民币创新机制跨境运行仍可能受到流动性约束、结算摩擦和境外接受度波动的影响,这些因素会放大外部冲击对汇率与跨境资本流动的传导,并削弱数字人民币的跨境结算效率。政策模拟结果显示,传统货币政策框架下的双目标泰勒规则效果有限;相比之下,定向利差补贴可稳定预期回报,并降低外部失衡与汇率超调。上述结论表明,应建立覆盖清算安排、流动性支持与风险管理的动态监测与信息披露体系,辅以面向数字人民币市场的定向宏观审慎工具,并使之与货币政策、资本项目管理相协调,从而在提升跨境效率的同时,有效控制宏观波动。

关键词: 数字人民币创新机制, 跨境使用约束风险, 宏观经济波动, 动态随机一般均衡

Abstract: Against the backdrop of the rapid development of global digital currencies and the coordinated promotion of RMB internationalization, it is of great significance to evaluate the macroeconomic impact of the innovative mechanism of digital RMB. Based on the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the open economies of the two countries and considering the digital RMB as a digital legal tender tool that combines payment convenience and liquidity services, this paper conducts a study. The findings show that the innovative mechanism of digital RMB can promote the linkage between trade and capital flow by reducing payment friction and optimizing asset portfolio. The cross-border operation of the innovative mechanism of digital RMB may still be affected by liquidity constraints, settlement frictions, and fluctuations in overseas acceptance, which will amplify the transmission of external shocks to exchange rates and cross-border capital flows, and weaken the cross-border settlement efficiency of digital RMB. The policy simulation results show that the dual objective Taylor rule under the traditional monetary policy framework has limited effectiveness; in contrast, targeted interest rate spread subsidies can stabilize expected returns and reduce external imbalances and exchange rate overshoots. The above conclusion indicates that a dynamic monitoring and information disclosure system covering clearing arrangements, liquidity support, and risk management should be established, supplemented by targeted macroprudential tools for the digital RMB market, and coordinated with monetary policy and capital account management, in order to effectively control macroeconomic fluctuations while improving cross-border efficiency.

Key words: digital RMB innovation mechanism, cross-border use constraints, macroeconomic fluctuations, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE)

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