双循环新发展格局下税收激励与居民消费扩容提质——来自“营改增”的经验证据

当代财经 ›› 2023, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (6): 29-41.

双循环新发展格局下税收激励与居民消费扩容提质——来自“营改增”的经验证据

张青¹, 周全林²

1.上海理工大学管理学院,上海 200093;
2.江西财经大学财税与公共管理学院,江西南昌 330013

收稿日期:2022-10-26 修回日期:2023-04-08 出版日期:2023-06-15 发布日期:2023-09-13
通讯作者: 张青,上海理工大学副教授,经济学博士,主要从事财税理论与政策研究,联系方式zhqing81@usst.edu.cn
作者简介:周全林,江西财经大学教授,经济学博士,主要从事财税理论与政策研究。
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金青年项目“减税降费背景下我国企业并购税制的效果评价与优化设计研究”（20CGL005）; 上海理工大学人文社科培育基金项目“企业异质性视角下减税的微观传导路径和资源配置效应研究”（20SKPY04）

Tax Incentive and Capacity Expansion and Quality Improvement of Residents’ Consumption under the New Pattern of Dual Cycle Development: Empirical Evidences from“Replacing Business Tax with Value-Added Tax”

ZHANG Qing¹, ZHOU Quan-lin²

1. University ofShanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai 200093;
2. Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330013, China

Received:2022-10-26 Revised:2023-04-08 Online:2023-06-15 Published:2023-09-13

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 双循环新发展格局下,促消费扩内需将发挥基础性作用。减税是降低市场主体税收负担、扩大内需的重要政策选择。基于中国家庭金融调查数据（CHFS）,采用“营改增”准自然实验的证据,考察减税对我国居民消费扩容提质的作用机理和政策效应。结果表明：“营改增”显著地促进居民消费,提高了家庭平均消费倾向和消费升级指数,具有扩容提质效应。进一步研究发现：“营改增”从供需两端刺激居民消费,遵循价格机制和收入机制,收入机制的消费升级效应更为持久;“营改增”政策在不同收入组别家庭间的消费效应具有异质性,对低收入家庭的消费扩容提质效应更大。因此,建议降低企业负担,助力居民就业和增收;提高中低收入居民的消费意愿和能力,激发社会消费潜能;推进基本公共服务均等化和可及性,降低居民预防性储蓄动机;促进现代生活服务业发展,优化发展型和享受型消费供给。

关键词: 双循环新发展格局, 税收激励, 居民消费, 营改增, 扩容提质

Abstract: Under the new development pattern of dual circulation, promoting consumption and expanding domestic demand will play a fundamental role. Tax reduction is an important policy choice to reduce the tax burden on market entities and expand domestic demand. Based on the data of Chinese Household Finance Survey (CHFS), this study uses the evidence from the quasi natural experiment of“replacing business tax with value-added tax”to examine the mechanism and policy effects of tax reduction on the capacity expansion and quality improvement of the consumption of Chinese residents. The results indicate that the“replacement of business tax with value-added tax”has significantly promoted the residents’ consumption and increased the household average consumption propensity and consumption upgrading index, having a capacity expansion and quality improvement effect. Further research has found that“replacing business tax with value-added tax”can stimulate residents’ consumption from both supply and demand sides; following the price mechanism and income mechanism, the consumption upgrading effect of the income mechanism is more sustainable. The consumption effect of the“replacing business tax to value-added tax”policy is heterogeneous among households in different income groups, with a greater impact on the capacity expansion and quality improvement of consumption for low-income households. Therefore, it is suggested to reduce the burden on enterprises, assist residents in employment and in income growth, improve the consumption willingness and the ability of low and middle-income residents, stimulate social consumption potential, promote the equalization and accessibility of basic public services, reduce residents’ motivation for preventive savings, promote the development of modern life service industry, and optimize the supply of development oriented and enjoyment oriented consumption.

Key words: new development pattern of dual circulation, tax incentive, resident consumption, replacing business tax with value-added tax, expanding capacity and improving quality

中图分类号:

F812.42

张青, 周全林. 双循环新发展格局下税收激励与居民消费扩容提质——来自“营改增”的经验证据[J]. 当代财经, 2023, 0(6): 29-41.

ZHANG Qing, ZHOU Quan-lin. Tax Incentive and Capacity Expansion and Quality Improvement of Residents’ Consumption under the New Pattern of Dual Cycle Development: Empirical Evidences from“Replacing Business Tax with Value-Added Tax”[J]. Contemporary Finance & Economics, 2023, 0(6): 29-41.

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