经济增长与主权债务违约——基于投资者情绪的视角

当代财经 ›› 2022, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (7): 52-64.

经济增长与主权债务违约——基于投资者情绪的视角

袁晓晖, 王博

南开大学金融学院,天津 300350

收稿日期:2021-09-16 修回日期:2022-01-12 出版日期:2022-07-15 发布日期:2022-09-09
通讯作者: 袁晓晖,南开大学博士研究生,主要从事国际金融研究,联系方式super_yuan@qq.com。
作者简介:王博,南开大学教授,博士生导师,博士,主要从事国际金融与货币宏观研究。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金面上项目“外部冲击对中国金融稳定的影响机理：不确定性与公共事件冲击视角”（72073076）; 国家自然科学基金面上项目“基于大数据的中国金融系统性风险测度及其演化规律研究”（71873070）; 国家社会科学基金重大专项“我国债务危机风险的防范治理与有效缓解对策研究”（18VFH007）

Economic Growth and Sovereign Debt Default: From the Perspective of Investor Sentiment

YUAN Xiao-hui, WANG Bo

Nankai University, Tianjin 300350, China

Received:2021-09-16 Revised:2022-01-12 Online:2022-07-15 Published:2022-09-09

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 投资者情绪对经济活动的影响至关重要。基于2000—2020年64个国家的季度和年度非平衡面板数据,通过研究投资者情绪对经济增长和主权债务违约的影响,发现投资者情绪较为乐观的国家,更有可能出现经济增长放缓和主权债务违约,特别是那些拥有巨额经常账户赤字的国家,且投资者情绪存在潜在的非对称性,过度乐观会显著提高主权国家的违约金额占比和违约概率。机制分析表明,过度乐观的投资者情绪会通过积累大量债务和减少投资来影响一国的经济状况。因此,在当前的外部环境下,主权国家在投融资时应更加重视基本面信息,审慎使用外部资本,持续加强监管,防范由于过度乐观而积累风险。

关键词: 投资者情绪, 主权债务违约, 经济增长, 过度乐观

Abstract: The impact of investor sentiment on economic activities is crucial. Based on the quarterly and annual unbalanced panel data of 64 countries from 2000 to 2020, this paper studies the impact of investor sentiment on economic growth and sovereign debt defaults. The findings show that countries with more optimistic investor sentiment are more likely to experience slower economic growth and sovereign debt defaults, especially those countries with huge current account deficits; and the investor sentiment is potentially asymmetrical, excessive optimism will significantly increase the default amount proportion and the default probability of sovereign countries. The results of the mechanistic analysis show that overly optimistic investor sentiment can affect a country's economic situation by accumulating large amounts of debt and reducing investment. Therefore, under the current external environment, sovereign countries should pay more attention to the fundamental information when making investments and financing, use external capital prudently, continue to strengthen supervision, and prevent the accumulated risks due to excessive optimism.

Key words: investor sentiment, sovereign debt default, economic growth, excessive optimism

中图分类号:

F831.5

袁晓晖, 王博. 经济增长与主权债务违约——基于投资者情绪的视角[J]. 当代财经, 2022, 0(7): 52-64.

YUAN Xiao-hui, WANG Bo. Economic Growth and Sovereign Debt Default: From the Perspective of Investor Sentiment[J]. Contemporary Finance & Economics, 2022, 0(7): 52-64.

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