生产率提升对就业的影响——挤出效应还是溢出效应

当代财经 ›› 2022, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (4): 15-27.

生产率提升对就业的影响——挤出效应还是溢出效应

魏熙晔¹, 郭东杰²

1.北华航天工业学院经济管理学院,河北廊坊 065000;
2.浙江工业大学管理学院,浙江杭州 310023

收稿日期:2021-08-19 修回日期:2021-10-03 出版日期:2022-04-15 发布日期:2022-05-26
通讯作者: 郭东杰,浙江工业大学副教授,经济学博士,主要从事人口与劳动经济学研究,联系方式gdjcba@zjut.edu.cn。
作者简介:魏熙晔,北华航天工业学院副教授,经济学博士,主要从事发展经济学研究
基金资助:
河北省社会科学基金项目“人工智能对高质量就业和收入分配格局的影响机制研究”（HB20LJ004）; 北京市社会科学青年基金项目“国际比较视角下北京经济高质量发展的指标体系及路径优化研究”（19YJC038）; 国家社会科学基金项目“数字技术驱动就业技能结构转变的内在机理、效应评估与应对政策研究”（21BJY087）

The Impact of Productivity Growth on Employment: Crowding Out Effect or Spillover Effect?

WEI Xi-ye¹, GUO Dong-jie²

1. North China Institute of Aerospace Engineering, Langfang 065000;
2. Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou 310023, China

Received:2021-08-19 Revised:2021-10-03 Online:2022-04-15 Published:2022-05-26

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 生产率提升促使工作性质发生变革,进而影响就业数量和就业结构。基于三维面板数据模型和全球43个国家56个行业2000—2014年数据的实证研究发现,生产率提升可能对就业总量有负向冲击,但影响相对轻微;生产率提升对本行业就业具有挤出效应而对其他行业就业具有溢出效应。进一步研究表明,生产率提升对就业的影响不仅受到人力资本的制约,而且呈现多维度异质性特征。信息技术、教育和公共服务业的生产率提升具有积极的溢出效应,而金融业和房地产业的过度繁荣则产生显著的挤出效应;发展中国家生产率提升对就业的总体冲击大于发达国家;后金融危机时期生产率提升的行业内部挤出效应和跨行业溢出效应均有所减弱,生产率提升不会增加就业,原因在于其负向直接效应对正向溢出效应有强烈的抵消作用。

关键词: 生产率, 就业总量, 挤出效应, 溢出效应

Abstract: Productivity growth can promote the changes of the nature of work, and further affect the quantity and structure of employment. This paper conducts an empirical study based on a three-dimensional panel data model and the data of 56 industries in 43 countries from 2000 to 2014. The results show that productivity growth may have a negative influence on the total employment, but it is relatively slight. The productivity growth has a crowding out effect on the employment of the same industry but a spillover effect on other industries. The findings of further study show that the impact of the improvement of productivity on the employment is not only restricted by human capital, but also presents multi-dimensional heterogeneity. The improvement of productivity in such industries as information technology, education and public services has a positive spillover effect, while the excessive prosperity of the financial industry and the real estate industry has a significant crowding out effect. The overall impact of the improvement of productivity on employment in developing countries is greater than that in developed countries. During the period of post financial crisis, both the crowding out effect in the industries with productivity growth and the cross-industry spillover effect are somewhat weakened. The improvement of productivity will not increase employment, the reason is that its negative direct effect has a strong counteracting effect on the positive spillover effect.

Key words: productivity, aggregate employment, crowding out effect, spillover effect

中图分类号:

F062.9

魏熙晔, 郭东杰. 生产率提升对就业的影响——挤出效应还是溢出效应[J]. 当代财经, 2022, 0(4): 15-27.

WEI Xi-ye, GUO Dong-jie. The Impact of Productivity Growth on Employment: Crowding Out Effect or Spillover Effect?[J]. Contemporary Finance & Economics, 2022, 0(4): 15-27.

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