宏观替代弹性、国内生产率与进口种类利得纠偏

当代财经 ›› 2021, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (8): 102-114.

宏观替代弹性、国内生产率与进口种类利得纠偏

许统生¹, 方玉霞²

1.江西财经大学国际经贸学院,江西南昌 330013;
2.江西师范大学财政金融学院,江西南昌 330022

收稿日期:2021-03-25 修回日期:2021-07-09 出版日期:2021-08-15 发布日期:2021-09-02
通讯作者: 方玉霞,江西师范大学讲师,经济学博士,主要从事国际贸易理论与政策研究,联系方式fangyuxia27@126.com。
作者简介:许统生,江西财经大学教授,博士生导师,博士,主要从事国际贸易理论与政策研究。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目“广义Armington 替代弹性模型的拓展构造与中国贸易发展的预期应用研究”(71773042); 国家自然科学基金项目“贸易便利化对中国企业出口行为影响的经验分析”(71863013); 江西省教育厅科学技术研究项目“数字经济对企业升级影响的研究：基于进口贸易的视角”(GJJ200334)

Macro Substitutive Elasticity, Domestic Productivity and Rectification of Imported Product Range Gains

Xu Tong-sheng¹, Fang Yu-xia²

1. Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330013;
2. Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China

Received:2021-03-25 Revised:2021-07-09 Online:2021-08-15 Published:2021-09-02

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于2006—2016 年中国与124 个进口来源国（地区）数据,证实了中国国内产品种类与进口产品种类的替代性,考察了阿明顿（Armington）宏观替代弹性、国内生产率对进口产品种类利得的影响,测算了中国工业品贸易利得的偏误。结果发现：在中国国内产品种类与进口产品种类具有替代性的条件下,中国国内生产率会放大贸易成本对进口产品种类的影响;Armington宏观替代弹性越高,贸易成本对进口产品种类的影响越大;中国工业平均贸易利得被高估12%,国内生产率导致的平均贸易利得被高估9%;从行业结构看,有12个行业的进口利得被低估或高估,其中“煤炭”贸易利得被高估3~5倍。因此,应科学判断进口产品种类利得,不断提高国内生产率。

关键词: Armington宏观替代弹性, 国内生产率, 贸易成本, 进口种类利得

Abstract: Based on the data of China and 124 import countries from 2006 to 2016, this paper verifies the substitutability of China's domestic product ranges for imported product ranges, examines Armington macro substitutive elasticity and the impact of domestic productivity on the gains of imported product ranges, and measures the biased errors of the gains of Chinese industrial products trade. The results show that under the conditions of both China's domestic products ranges and the imported product ranges being substitutable, China's domestic productivity will amplify the impact of trade costs on the imported product ranges. The higher Armington macro substitutive elasticity, the greater the impact of trade costs on the imported product ranges. In average, the trade gain of China's industry is overvalued by 12%. The average trade gain caused by domestic productivity is overestimated by 9%. In terms of industrial structure, the import gains of 12 industries are either underestimated or overestimated, in which the trade gains of coal is over-estimated by 3 to 5 times. Therefore, we should estimate objectively the gains from the imported product ranges and keep on improving domestic productivity.

Key words: macro substitutive elasticity, domestic productivity, trade costs, rectification of gains from imports

中图分类号:

F752.61

许统生, 方玉霞. 宏观替代弹性、国内生产率与进口种类利得纠偏[J]. 当代财经, 2021, 0(8): 102-114.

Xu Tong-sheng, Fang Yu-xia. Macro Substitutive Elasticity, Domestic Productivity and Rectification of Imported Product Range Gains[J]. Contemporary Finance & Economics, 2021, 0(8): 102-114.

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