当代财经 ›› 2021, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (5): 65-76.

• 现代金融 • 上一篇    下一篇

外汇储备的金融稳定效应——基于本外币利差的视角

曹春玉   

  1. 上海立信会计金融学院 金融学院,上海 201209
  • 收稿日期:2020-12-22 出版日期:2021-05-15 发布日期:2021-05-31
  • 作者简介:曹春玉,上海立信会计金融学院讲师,经济学博士,主要从事货币政策和国际金融研究,联系方式irisccy@163.com。
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金一般项目“基于金融开放视角的货币政策与宏观审慎政策的逆周期协调机制研究”(20BJY242)

The Financial Stability Effect of Foreign Exchange Reserves: From the Perspective of Interest Margin between Domestic and Foreign Currencies

CAO Chun-yu   

  1. Shanghai Lixin University of Accounting and Finance, Shanghai 201209, China
  • Received:2020-12-22 Online:2021-05-15 Published:2021-05-31

摘要: 从金融开放角度出发,通过推导经外汇储备规模调整的非抛补利率平价条件,为外汇储备的金融稳定效应提供了基于本外币利差视角的理论解释。使用1980—2018年的年度数据,通过研究外汇储备应对主要发达经济体货币政策外溢效应,发现非国际货币发行经济体的外汇储备有助于维持本币与美元的利差,外汇储备存在着通过引发本币利率及汇率变动进而影响本币与美元利差的传导途径。外汇储备对本币与美元利差的影响在非金融危机期间增强,对本币与欧元等其他SDR构成货币的利差也有显著的正向影响,对本外币利差的作用在“一带一路”倡议经济体子样本中统计显著。因此,宜根据经济形势变化及外汇储备作用机制转化,同时考虑银行体系资产风险溢价因素,持续优化外汇储备规模。

关键词: 外汇储备, 本外币利差, 金融稳定

Abstract: From the perspective of financial openness, this paper derives the conditions of the uncovered interest parity through the scale adjustment of foreign exchange reserves, so as to provide a theoretical explanation for the financial stability effect of foreign exchange reserves from the perspective of interest margin of domestic and foreign currencies. It makes use of the annual data from 1980 to 2018 to study the foreign exchange reserves in dealing with the spillover effects of monetary policies of the major developed economies. The findings show that the foreign exchange reserves of non-international currency issuing economies can help maintain the interest margin between the local currency and the U.S. dollar, and that there exist transmission paths in foreign exchange reserves which will affect the interest margin between the local currency and U.S. dollar by triggering the changes in local currency interest rates and exchange rates. The influence of foreign exchange reserves on the interest margin between the local currency and the US dollar will be enhanced during the periods without financial crisis, and it also has a significant positive impact on the interest margin between the local currency and Euro and other SDR currencies. This impact on the interest margin between the local currency and foreign currencies is significant in the statistics of the sub-samples of the“Road and Belt”initiative economies. Therefore, it is advisable to continuously optimize the scale of foreign exchange reserves in accordance with the changes of the economic situations and the transformation of the mechanism of foreign exchange reserves, while taking into account the asset risk premium factors of the banking system.

Key words: foreign exchange reserves, interest margin between domestic and foreign currencies, financial stability

中图分类号: