关键词: 过早去工业化, 制造业比重, 人均收入, 经济增长

Abstract: Deindustrialization has always been regarded as the natural result of industrial transformation in developed countries; however, many developing countries have entered the stage of deindustrialization prematurely before completing the task of industrialization, which may bring significant negative impact to the economic development. Based on the theoretical assumption that there is a non-linear relationship between the per capita income and the proportion of the manufacturing industry and the cross-border panel data, this paper conducts an empirical study. The findings show that 14 developing countries in the sample countries have the sign of deindustrialization at the stage of lower level of per capita income. Compared with the normal deindustrialization of the developed economies, premature deindustrialization will lead to an even lower peak level of the proportion of the manufacturing industry, and an even lower corresponding per capita income. Premature deindustrialization will lead to insufficient industrial development, weaken the motive force of long-term economic growth, thus hinder the transition of the economy to medium and high income economy, and even fall into the trap of low-level growth.

Key words: premature deindustrialization, share of the manufacturing industry, income per capita, economic growth