关键词: 地方政府债务,违约风险,债务杠杆,KMV模型

Abstract: Based on KMV Model, this paper conducts a theoretical analysis of the relationship between local government debt default risk and debt leverage through suitable variable substitution. At the same time, it makes use of the data of annual debt repayment, interest payments and financial revenue that can be used for repayment of 30 provinces in China from 2012 to 2017 to carry out an empirical test of the relationship between local government debt leverage and debt default risk with the panel data model. The findings show that there is a significant negative correlation between debt leverage and default risks of local government debt. In addition, such factors as the degree of fiscal decentralization, the regional economic development level, the proportion of urban population, the degree of real estate dependence, the proportion of local government revenue to GDP, and the marketization degree can all produce significant impact on the default risks of local government debt. Therefore, in order to prevent and control local government debt risks effectively, it is suggested to make great efforts in the following aspects, i.e., to improve the early warning and monitoring systems for local government debts, to reasonably match the financial and administrative powers between the central government and local governments, to cultivate effective financial resources of local governments, to reduce real estate dependence, and to perfect the market-oriented mechanism of bond issuance.

Key words: local government debt; default risk; debt leverage; KMV model