当代财经 ›› 2019, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (01): 26-.

• •    

分析师预测会利用年报文本信息吗

许文瀚1,朱朝晖1,2   

  1. (1. 浙江大学宁波理工学院 商学院,浙江 宁波 315000;2. 浙江工商大学 财务与会计学院,浙江 杭州 310018)
  • 收稿日期:2018-10-29 发布日期:2021-01-21
  • 作者简介:许文瀚,浙江大学宁波理工学院讲师,博士,主要从事文本信息、企业创新管理研究;朱朝晖,浙江工商大学教授,博士,主要从事行为财务、资本市场研究,通讯作者联系方式 xwh1988@163.com。

Will the Text Message in Annual Reports Be Used by Analysts in Their Prediction?

XU Wen-zhao1, ZHU Zhao-hui1,2   

  1. (1. Ningbo Institute of Technology, Zhejiang University, Ningbo 315000; 2. Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou 310018, China)
  • Received:2018-10-29 Published:2021-01-21

摘要: 当前,以文本信息为主的非财务信息在年报中的地位逐渐提高,采用文本语调统计法和特征词统计法,通过Python编程语言分析了中国A股上市公司的年报文本信息。研究发现,分析师会关注年报文本信息,并调整对上市公司的业绩预测。如果文本信息语调与实际业绩不符且异常乐观,分析师将下调业绩预测,并减少对文本信息的关注。

关键词: 年报文本信息,分析师,异常乐观

Abstract: At present, the non-financial information with text messages as the principal part is becoming more and more important in annual reports. This paper adopts the textual intonation statistical method and characteristic word statistical method to analyze the text message in the annual reports of China’s A-share listed companies through Python programming language. The findings show that analysts would pay attention to the text information in the annual reports and adjust the performance forecast of listed companies. If the tone of the text message does not match the actual performance and is extremely optimistic, the analyst will downgrade the performance forecast and reduce their focus on the text message.

Key words: text information in annual report; analyst; unusual optimism