关键词: 制度变迁,WTO,登记制,出口三元边际,LSDV法

Abstract: Based on the theoretical analysis, this paper employs the LSDV method of panel data and makes use of the matched data between Chinese Customs Trade Statistics (CCTS) and Annual Survey of Industrial Firms (ASIF) during the period of 2000-2007 to conduct an empirical study of the micro impact of the two foreign trade institutional changes, i.e., China’s WTO accession in 2001 and the registration system for foreign trade business in 2004, on China’s export ternary margins. The findings are as follows: (1) as to the export extensive margins, compared to foreign demand pull brought by WTO accession, the domestic export market supply push brought by the registration system has exerted more remarkable impact on the promotion of both the export participation of the potential enterprises and the product expansion of the existing enterprises; (2) as to the export intensive margins, the impact of WTO accession on export quantity expansion shows an inverted?U-shape of first rising then falling, while the registration system has intensified the domestic export competition, leading to the distinctive compression of the export quantity of the traditional products; (3) as to the export product prices, the marginal impact of the two institutional changes presents a U-shape tendency of first falling then rising over the time, which implies that the competition effect brought by the changes of foreign trade systems may compel enterprises to drop their product prices to keep their competitiveness in the short run, while in the long run it is in favor of encouraging enterprises’ export innovation in order to gain sustainable export competitiveness; (4) after distinguishing the different trade patterns, the impact of the two institutional changes on the ternary margins of the ordinary trade export is more significant than on the processing trade.

Key words: institutional changes; WTO; registration system; export ternary margins; LSDV method