关键词: 影子银行,金融稳定,货币政策,动态随机一般均衡模型

Abstract: The pro-economic cycle characteristics of the commercial banks and the risk-taking mechanisms of the shadow banks may result in the counter-cyclical expansion of the shadow banks under the impact of the tight-money policy. The study shows that this financial characteristics will strengthen mutually and bring stagflation risks to the economy under the impact of the tight-money policy, while the Taylor rule which traditionally focus on inflation and output gap cannot effectively inhibit its impact on macro-economy. The monetary policy authority should bring the total social credit amount into the traditional Taylor rule and make a certain degree of response to it. The interest rate difference of credit used to measure the credit conditions between shadow banks and commercial banks should be regarded as an observation variable, and the monetary policy should respond to it when its volatility exceeds a certain extent. To eliminate financial discrimination and financial repression has the best result of social welfare; the monetary policy responding to the financial variables should also avoid the conflicts between policy instruments and the overlaying of policy targets.

Key words: shadow banking; financial stability; monetary policy; DSGE