关键词: 贸易开放,辍学选择,机会成本,贸易结构

Abstract: In the context of supply side reform, the transformation and upgrading of China’s export trade and the optimal allocation of educational resources have become an important issue in the current reform. For this reason, based on the theoretical analysis of the impact of trade openness on educational choices, this paper makes use of the date of Chinese household income survey to conduct an empirical analysis of the impact of trade openness on teenagers’ choice of dropping-out and the urban-rural differences. The findings indicate that, generally speaking, the trade openness has significantly increased the probability of teenagers’ dropping out of school. In the rural areas with lower economic development level and imperfect education system, the rate of dropping out of school of the teenagers is more affected by the trade openness. The main reason is that the current trade openness with lower quality can provide the cheap labor force with a lot of employment space, thus the opportunity cost of young people to continue their education is increased. Therefore, to improve the trade quality, to change the trade mode, to upgrade the trade technology and other improvement of the supply side structure can all restrain the probability of juvenile dropout to a great extent. This is conducive to the long-term accumulation of human capital in our country.

Key words: trade openness; choice of dropping out; opportunity cost; trade structure