关键词: 消息冲击,未预期到的冲击,房地产价格,货币政策

Abstract: From the perspective of news shock, this paper discusses in detail the impact of the news shocks related to the loan-to-value ratio and the unanticipated shocks on China’s real estate market with the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, which contains the real estate market. It also compares the dynamic effects produced by the news shocks and the unanticipated shocks under different monetary policies. The results can be concluded as following: (1) there exist significant differences in the macroeconomic effects between the news shocks and unanticipated shocks; (2) news shocks can drive the real housing prices upward persistently through the expected self-fulfilling mechanism; (3) in the context of news shocks, the monetary policy that takes the real housing price as the pegged target has much better stabilizing effects than the monetary policy that pegging the mixed price index. Therefore, the government should guide the public to form correct expectations and take the real estate prices as the pegged object of the monetary policy, so as to achieve the goal of stabilizing the real estate market by taking advantage of the effects of positive news shocks.

Key words: news shocks; unanticipated shocks; housing price; monetary policy