关键词: 通胀惯性,理性预期,预期冲击,误差记忆性

Abstract: Inflation expectation is one of the leading factors influencing the current and future inflation, but the inflation expectation in China has greater volatility, which can directly affect the implementation effect of the inflation management policies. By applying the ARMA- GARCH models, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the dynamic features of China’s inflation impacts and its expectation. The results indicate that: (1) rational expectation and inflation inertia are separate factors influencing inflation, and the disturbance on inflation shows such characteristics as inertia, periodicity and cyclical hysteretic nature; (2) the shocks from inflation expectation has the feature of inertia, and the actual inflation impact would affect the stability of the inflation expectation; and (3) the inflation fluctuation has an asymmetric effect on the stability of inflation expectation, and it is more sensitive to the negative actual inflation fluctuation. The results of the above analysis present such policies suggestions for inflation management that the government can realize its inflation target only through the way of expectation guidance, but it has to adopt prudent inflation management policies.

Key words: inflation inertia; rational expectation; expected impacts; error memorability