关键词: 预售,现售,风险规避系数,预测损失,决策损失

Abstract: Taking sale on spot as the benchmark, this paper studies the advance sale market and its risks from the perspective of perishable goods retailers. Based on the benchmarking analysis of the sale on spot market, it analyzes the consumers’ behaviors both in the sale on spot market and in the advance market and examines the demands in these two markets. The results show that the risks of consumers’ purchase in advance will increase the uncertainty in the advance sale market, but it is harmless. It establishes a model of the profits of optimized advance sale prices and discusses the market risks brought about by decision failures resulted from inaccurate survey information. The numerical analysis shows that either sale on spot or advance sale has its advantages and disadvantages. It is beneficial for retailers to try to reduce consumers’ risk costs of their pre-ordered goods; this can not only help to raise the prices of advance sales, but also help to increase the sales volume. Further risk study indicates that sale on spot relies heavily on the accuracy of market prediction, while sale in advance is not subject to it and can mitigate all sorts of uncertain risks effectively.

Key words: advance sale; sale on spot; risk aversion index; loss of forecast; loss of decision