关键词: 国际资源价格,广义供求,冲击测度,FAVAR模型

Abstract: Through expanding the theory of supply-and-demand equilibrium price in the neoclassical economics, this paper endogenizes all the factors affecting international resource prices to construct the theory of generalized supply-and-demand equilibrium price. Based on the data from January 1997 to December 2012, it selects 14 economic variables, covering American and Chinese real economy, financial factors, speculative factors, supply and demand, and inventory, as the research object, so as to establish a factor-augmented vector autoregression model -- FAVAR model. Then it systematically investigates the impact and contribution of the various variables on and to the international resource price fluctuations. The results show that the generalized supply and demand (made up of entity supply-and-demand + speculative supply-and-demand) can determine the international resource equilibrium price. In the long run, U. S. real economic demands is the main factor pushing the international resource prices, while the speculative supply-and-demand is not the key factor in the fluctuation of international resource prices. In the short run, the speculative supply-and-demand has a more powerful impact on the international resource prices, U.S. quantitative easing has a significant impact on the fluctuation of international resource prices too. Compared with both American and Chinese factors, no matter in the long run or in the short run, Chinese factors always have weaker impact on the international resource prices than American factors, but the short-term effect is stronger than the long-term effect.

Key words: international resource price; generalized supply and demand; impact measurement; FAVAR model