当代财经 ›› 2015, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (02): 609-.

• • 上一篇    

土地财政、地方债务与房价水平——基于省际面板数据的实证研究

刁伟涛   

  1. (青岛理工大学 经贸学院,山东 青岛 266520)
  • 收稿日期:2014-10-30 发布日期:2021-01-21
  • 作者简介:刁伟涛,青岛理工大学讲师,博士,主要从事土地财政和政府债务研究,联系方式diaoweitao@126.com。

Land Finance, Local Government Debt and Housing Price Level: An Empirical Research Based on Provincial Panel Data

DIAO Wei-tao   

  1. (Qingdao Technological University, Qingdao 266520, China)
  • Received:2014-10-30 Published:2021-01-21

摘要: 国有土地出让收入和地方债务收入是宽口径“土地财政”的重要组成部分。通过对2009-2012年我国30个省份面板数据的实证研究表明,这两个因素对于当地房价具有正向的推动作用,后者的影响机制主要是债务支出的资本化。这一结论对于我国的房价调控以及土地财政和地方债务的治理具有一定的启示。因此,建议进一步完善分税制财政体制,降低地方政府对土地财政的依赖,修正以GDP为核心指标的晋升考核制度,将地方债务规模和还债能力也纳入考核,在地方债“新规”下严格控制地方政府的发债规模并规范其支出投向。

关键词: 土地财政,地方债务,房价水平,国有土地出让收入

Abstract: State-owned land transfer income and local debt income are two important parts of the wider-diameter “land finance”. The empirical study of the panel data from China’s 30 provinces during 2009-2012 shows that these two factors can play a positive role in promoting the local housing prices. The influencing mechanism of the latter is mainly the capitalization of the repayments of debts. This conclusion can provide some enlightenment for China’s housing price regulation as well as the governance of land finance and local debts. Thus, it is suggested to further perfect the financial system of the tax distribution system, to reduce the dependence of local governments on the land finance, to correct the appraisal system with GDP as the core index, to bring the local debt scale and the repaying capacity into the appraisal system, and to strictly control the bond-issuing scale of local governments and normalize their spending orientation under the “new rules” for local government debts.

Key words: land finance; local government debt; housing price level; state-owned land sales