城市化与房地产开发投资区域差异——基于动态面板数据模型的实证

当代财经 ›› 2014, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (11): 640-.

城市化与房地产开发投资区域差异——基于动态面板数据模型的实证

张立新1，秦俊武2

（1. 中南财经政法大学中国投资研究中心，湖北武汉 430073；2. 深圳市房地产评估发展中心，广东深圳 518040）

收稿日期:2014-08-10 发布日期:2021-01-21
作者简介:张立新，中南财经政法大学博士研究生，高级工程师，主要从事房地产金融与投资研究，联系方式zhanglixin1987@163.com；秦俊武，深圳市房地产评估发展中心博士后，研究员，主要从事房地产金融与投资研究。

Urbanization and Regional Differences of Investment in Real Estate Development: Evidences Based on the Dynamic Panel Data Model

ZHANG Li-xin1, QIN Jun-wu2

(1. Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan 430074; 2. Center for Assessment and Development of Real Estate, Shengzhen 518040, China)

Received:2014-08-10 Published:2021-01-21

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 在人口城市化变量的基础上，尝试将空间城市化和资本城市化变量引入分析框架，利用1998-2012年省际面板数据建立动态面板模型，并运用系统GMM估计方法，对城市化影响下的房地产开发投资区域配置及其差异进行了实证研究。研究结果表明：从全国层面来看，在控制其他影响因素后，空间城市化和资本城市化对房地产开发投资的影响远大于人口城市化。基于区域层面的估计结果再次表明，人口城市化并不足以主导房地产开发投资区域配置的现实格局，取而代之的是空间城市化和资本城市化对房地产开发投资的区域配置及其结构演变有着至关重要的作用，这在一定程度上纠正了当前对人口城市化作用的不当认识。

关键词: 人口城市化,空间城市化,资本城市化,房地产开发投资,区域结构

Abstract: Based on the population urbanization variable, this paper tries to introduce the variables of space urbanization and capital urbanization into the analytical framework. Then it makes use of the provincial panel data during 1998-2012 to construct a dynamic panel model. By applying the system GMM estimation method, it conducts an empirical study of the regional allocation and differences of investment in real estate development under the impact of urbanization. The results show that from a nationwide view, when other affecting factors are being controlled, the impact of space urbanization and capital urbanization on the investment in real estate development is much greater than that of population urbanization.The estimated result from the regional level reveals once again that population urbanization alone is not enough to dominate the current pattern of regional allocation of real estate development investment. Instead, space urbanization and capital urbanization are critical for the regional allocation and structural evolution of real estate development investment. This result can correct the improper understanding of the importance of population urbanization to some extent.

Key words: population urbanization; space urbanization; capital urbanization; investment in real estate development; regional structure

张立新1，秦俊武2. 城市化与房地产开发投资区域差异——基于动态面板数据模型的实证[J]. 当代财经, 2014, 0(11): 640-.

ZHANG Li-xin1, QIN Jun-wu2. Urbanization and Regional Differences of Investment in Real Estate Development: Evidences Based on the Dynamic Panel Data Model[J]. Contemporary Finance & Economics, 2014, 0(11): 640-.