关键词: 汇率波动,汇率错位,制造业出口,自回归分布滞后

Abstract: Based on the quarterly data from 1995 to 2011, this paper firstly estimates RMB real exchange rate volatility by employing the GARCH model. Then based on the behavior equilibrium exchange rate theory, it measures the degree of RMB real exchange rate misalignment. On the basis of that, it studies the impact of volatility and misalignment of RMB real exchange rate on the manufacturing export. The results show that whether in the long-term or short-term, the volatility and misalignment of RMB real exchange rate have both produced negative influence on the export commodities of different kinds, but the effect varies depending on the different features of the commodities. The different commodities for export all have a dynamic mechanism of self-correction in the short term. The monetary authorities should further reduce the negative impact of the volatility and misalignment of exchange rate on the manufacturing industry and other real economy while paying attention to the value level of RMB real exchange rate.

Key words: exchange rate volatility; exchange rate misalignment; manufacturing export; ARDL