当代财经 ›› 2012, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (03): 1490-.

• • 上一篇    

借贷投资和资产价格泡沫:理论与实证分析

黄飞鸣   

  1. (江西财经大学 金融学院,江西 南昌 330013)
  • 收稿日期:2012-03-19 发布日期:2021-01-21
  • 作者简介:黄飞鸣,江西财经大学副教授,经济学博士,主要从事货币理论与政策、金融机构管理研究。

Lending Investment and Asset Price Bubbles: Theory and Empirical Analysis

HUANG Fei-ming   

  1. (Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330013, China)
  • Received:2012-03-19 Published:2021-01-21

摘要: 现代金融市场上普遍存在着信息不对称和借贷投资行为,以及由此带来的风险收益不对称和风险转移问题,这会造成资产价格膨胀从而形成泡沫。基于选择有代表性投资者的借贷投资活动为研究对象,通过引入贷款价值比(LTV)进一步扩展Allen-Gale模型,并用LTV的动态调整来说明金融市场上资产价格泡沫生成的内在机理及其影响,以及通过模拟分析后得出:利率不变时,LTV越大,资产价格泡沫程度越大;LTV不变时,利率越低,资产价格泡沫程度越大。因此,遏制资产价格泡沫的关键是降低LTV,提高利率。

关键词: 借贷投资,资产价格泡沫,贷款价值比,Allen-Gale模型

Abstract: In modern financial markets, the prevalence of information asymmetry and borrowing-lending investment behavior, as well as the problems of the resulting risk-benefit asymmetry and risk transfer, would lead to asset price inflation and thus the formation of foam. Based on the selection of representative borrowing-lending investment activities of the investors as the research subject, through the introduction of the loan to value ratio (LTV) for further expansion of the Allen-Gale model, this paper tries to illustrate the internal mechanism of the formation of asset price bubble and its impact on financial markets by applying the dynamic adjustment of LTV. Through simulative analysis, it is found that when interest rates stay unchanged, the greater the LTV, the bigger the asset price bubbles; while the LTV remains constant, the lower the interest rates, the greater the level of asset price bubbles. Therefore, the key to contain asset price bubbles is to lower the LTV and to raise interest rates.

Key words: investment lending; asset price bubbles; loan to value ratio; Allen-Gale model