Abstract: The economic effects of individual tax-deferred commercial pension insurance will affect the further improvement of the individual tax deferred commercial pension insurance system and the individual insurance participation decision-making choices. This paper establishes a generational overlapping model of general equilibrium to analyze the economic effects of individual tax-deferred commercial pension insurance from the perspectives of capital output, factor prices, and individual welfare. The research results show that the establishment of a tax-deferred commercial pension insurance system is conducive to the improvement of the capital-labor ratio, the output-to-labor ratio, the wage level, the two-period consumption, and the lifetime utility level, and is helpful to reducing the interest rate level. However, there exist group differences in the improvement of individual utility level. The individual tax-deferred commercial pension insurance has improved the level of utility of those who have already participated in the basic pension insurance and enterprise annuity insurance to a greater extent than the level of improvement of those who have only participated in the basic pension insurance. If individuals reduce the payment of basic pension insurance to purchase commercial pension insurance, although they can increase their consumption during the work period, they will reduce the consumption during their retirement and the level of lifetime utility, thus it is not a rational decision.

Key words: individual tax deferral; commercial pension insurance; economic effect