Abstract: Due to the impacts of the aging of population, the decline of fertility and other factors, the urban pension funds in China's many cities are facing different degrees of payment risks. In order to accurately measure the payment risks of pension funds and effectively supervise the operation of funds, this paper makes an analysis of the dependent relationship between the income accounts and expenditure accounts with the help of Copula function under the assumption that the income and the expenditure of the funds are dependent, then it establishes a regression model. On this basis, it employs the financial risk measurement method and proposes two new methods to measure the pension account payment risks with a certain degree of confidence. Finally, it makes use of the relevant economic index data of China from 1997 to 2020 to measure the payment risk of the basic old-age insurance account of urban employees from 2022 to 2040 with different degrees of confidence, and it also puts forward the corresponding countermeasures.

Key words: urban employees, basic old-age insurance fund, payment risk, risk measurement