Abstract: By applying the econometric analysis model constructed by Griliches product function, this paper conducts an empirical and theoretical analysis of the relationship between China’s grain growth and the factor inputs, the institutional changes and natural disasters during the different stages from 1994 to 2016 and explores the promotion effect of the factor input and the institutional changes on the grain growth. The findings reveal that the institutional changes have a significant impact on China’s grain growth; there are great differences in the functions of institutions at different stages. As the various systems are gradually become improved, the potential of institutional factors contributing to grain growth become less and less, while the promotion effect of the factor inputs become more and more significant. Under the restrictions of resources and environment, in order to protect farmers’ production enthusiasm and stabilize grain production, it is suggested that the government should take the opportunity of“rural revitalization”and adopt reasonable policies to speed up the cultivation of new professional farmers, to improve the mechanization level of grain production energetically and to construct the agricultural socialization service system actively. The government should give full play to the markets in allocating resources, continue to deepen the reform of the price system, improve the mechanism of sustained growth of agricultural input, optimize the expenditure structure of fiscal support in agriculture, and improve the grain subsidies mechanism.

Key words: factor input; institution change; grain growth