中国地方政府债券风险空间关联网络结构特征及收敛性研究

江西财经大学学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (2): 12-23.

中国地方政府债券风险空间关联网络结构特征及收敛性研究

胡才龙^1,2, 魏建国¹

1.武汉理工大学经济学院 ,湖北武汉 430070;
2.湖北省社会科学院财贸研究所, 湖北武汉 430077

收稿日期:2020-08-26 修回日期:2020-09-27 出版日期:2021-03-25 发布日期:2021-03-25
通讯作者: 胡才龙,武汉理工大学博士研究生,湖北省社会科学院助理研究员,主要从事地方政府债务管理研究,联系方式327220814@qq.com;
作者简介:魏建国,武汉理工大学教授,博士,博士生导师,主要从事金融风险管理研究。
基金资助:
国家社科基金项目“脆弱信用环境下村镇银行信用风险管理创新研究”（14BGL185）

A Study of the Spatial Correlation Network Structure Characteristics and Convergence of China’s Local Government Bond Risks

HU Cai-long^1,2, WEI Jian-guo¹

1. Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070;
2. Hubei Academy of Social Sciences, Wuhan 430077, China

Received:2020-08-26 Revised:2020-09-27 Online:2021-03-25 Published:2021-03-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于引力模型识别省级地方政府债券风险的空间网络关系,运用社会网络方法分析债务置换期内债券风险的空间网络结构特征与动态演变趋势,并实证检验债券风险空间的收敛性。研究发现：（1）地方政府债券风险呈现出较为典型的“无标度网络”结构形态,网络传染机制存在“小世界现象”;（2）地方政府债券风险存在较强的空间网络连通性、关联性和通达性,且逐年动态强化;（3）地方政府债券风险呈现出显著的凝聚子群结构特性,不同子群之间的联动效应存在差异;（4）不同省份的债券风险在空间网络中传染的“权力”地位高低有较大差异,且相互之间的风险传染能力较稳定;（5）地方政府债券风险具有显著的收敛特征,且不同情形下的收敛速度不同,显示出债务置换政策效应较明显。因此,应从强化债券风险跨省份协同管理、防范区域之间债券风险传染、加强对不同区域的债券风险传染预警、推动不同省份的债券风险分类管理和进一步促进债券风险缓释等方面防范债券风险。

关键词: 地方政府债券风险, 空间关联网络, 社会网络分析法, 风险传染

Abstract: Based on the gravity model, this paper tries to recognize the spatial network relationship of provincial local government bond risks. It employs the social network method to analyze the spatial network structure characteristics and the dynamic evolution trend of the bond risks during the debt swap period and empirically examines the spatial convergence of the bond risks. The results show that: (1) the local government bond risks present a rather typical“scale-free network”structure, and the network contagion mechanism has a“small world phenomenon”; (2) local government bond risks have a stronger spatial network connectivity, correlation and accessibility, and they are dynamically strengthened year by year; (3) local government bond risks present obvious characteristics of cohesive subgroup structure, and the connected effect varies among different subgroups; (4) the bond risks of different provinces have a large difference in the“power”status of infection in the spatial network, and the ability of risk transmission among them is relatively stable; (5) the local government bond risks have significant convergence characteristics, and the convergence speed is different under different circumstances, indicating that the effect of the debt swap policy is more obvious. Therefore, it is necessary to prevent bond risks from such aspects as strengthening the coordinated management of bond risks across provinces, preventing bond risk contagion among regions, enhancing early warning of bond risk contagion in different regions, promoting classified bond risk management in different provinces, further promoting bond risk mitigation, and so on.

Key words: local government bond risk, spatial correlation network, the method of social network analysis, risk contagion

中图分类号:

F812.5

胡才龙, 魏建国. 中国地方政府债券风险空间关联网络结构特征及收敛性研究[J]. 江西财经大学学报, 2021, 0(2): 12-23.

HU Cai-long, WEI Jian-guo. A Study of the Spatial Correlation Network Structure Characteristics and Convergence of China’s Local Government Bond Risks[J]. Journal of Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, 2021, 0(2): 12-23.

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