中国居住用地市场的买方集中度分析——基于大数据的研究

江西财经大学学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (1): 13-24.

中国居住用地市场的买方集中度分析——基于大数据的研究

吴璟, 张戎捷

清华大学建设管理系,北京 100084

收稿日期:2019-05-17 出版日期:2020-01-25 发布日期:2020-12-14
通讯作者: 吴璟,清华大学副教授,教育部青年长江学者,主要从事城市和房地产经济学研究,联系方式ireswujing@tsinghuaedu.cn
作者简介:张戎捷,清华大学博士生,主要从事城市和房地产经济学研究。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金重大研究计划培育项目“基于多维度大数据的住房抵押贷款风险管理决策支持研究”（91546113）; 国家自然科学基金面上项目“土地财政对城市经济增长的影响研究”（71874093）

An Analysis of the Buyer Concentration in China's Residential Land Market: A Study Based on Big Data

WU Jing, ZHANG Rong-jie

Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China

Received:2019-05-17 Online:2020-01-25 Published:2020-12-14

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 居住用地是房地产开发最重要的投入要素,定量测算居住用地市场买方集中度是准确把握房地产开发业产业结构现状,进而推动城镇住房市场供给侧结构性改革、科学制定房地产开发业产业政策的关键。本研究利用土地出让公示和工商企业注册两类大数据资源,首次实现了对全国286个城市2008—2017年城市层面居住用地一级市场买方集中度的定量测算。研究结果表明,我国居住用地市场买方集中度已达到较高水平,且近年来呈持续快速上升趋势,至2017年已有超过70%城市属于不同程度的寡占型市场,其中西部地区城市和三、四线城市的集中度尤其高。重新审视并合理调整我国房地产开发业的现行产业政策,已成为当务之急。

关键词: 房地产开发业, 买方集中度, 居住用地, 产业政策

Abstract: Residential land is the most important input factor in the real estate development. The quantitative measurement of buyer concentration in the residential land market is the key to accurately grasp the status quo of industrial structure of the real estate developing industry, so as to promote the supply-side structural reform of urban housing markets and scientifically formulate the industrial policies for the real estate developing industry. This study makes use of both the big data resources, i.e., the land leasing bulletin and the business enterprises registration, and accomplishes for the first time the quantitative measurement of the city-level buyer concentration ratio of the primary residential land markets in 286 cities from 2008 to 2017. The research results show that China's urban residential land market has actually reached a very high buyer concentration degree, which has still been keeping a fast increasing trend in recent years. Up to 2017, over 70% of the sample cities could be identified as some kind of oligopoly markets, and the concentration ratio is especially high in the cities in the western region and the third and fourth-tier cities. It has become a top priority to re-examine and reasonably adjust the current industrial policies for China's real estate developing industry.

Key words: real estate developing industry, buyer concentration ratio, residential land, industrial policy

中图分类号:

F293.3

吴璟, 张戎捷. 中国居住用地市场的买方集中度分析——基于大数据的研究[J]. 江西财经大学学报, 2020, 0(1): 13-24.

WU Jing, ZHANG Rong-jie. An Analysis of the Buyer Concentration in China's Residential Land Market: A Study Based on Big Data[J]. Journal of Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, 2020, 0(1): 13-24.

参考文献

[1] 郁义鸿. 产业链类型与产业链效率基准[J]. 中国工业经济,2005,(11):35-42.
[2] 于立宏,郁义鸿. 基于产业链效率的煤电纵向规制模式研究[J]. 中国工业经济,2006,(6):5-13.
[3] 邓贻龙,张雷. 市场结构、企业行为与效率改进:基于中国电力产业的研究[J]. 政府管制评论,2017,(1):76-96.
[4] Steiner Robert L.The Nature and Benefits of National Brand/Private Label Competition[J]. Review of Industrial Organization, 2004, 24: 105-127.
[5] 张赞. 基于零售商垄断势力的纵向关系与竞争政策研究[D]. 上海:复旦大学,2007.
[6] 陈小毅. 中国煤炭产业集中问题实证研究[D]. 南京:南京航空航天大学,2013.
[7] 董烨然. 大零售商逆纵向控制合约选择与零供企业收益比较[J]. 管理世界,2012,(4):115-124.
[8] 王若楠. 我国大型零售商买方垄断的反垄断研究[D]. 上海:复旦大学,2014.
[9] 韩娟. 买方垄断势力下排他策略研究[D]. 北京:首都经济与贸易大学,2018.
[10] 蒋忠永. 买方垄断与供给寡头之间的超市场契约分析——以电力继保行业为例[D]. 南京:南京大学,2012.
[11] 张英辉. 产业链纵向结构、政府规制与风电产业困境[J]. 生态经济,2019,35(5):88-93.
[12] Galbraith J.K. American Capitalism: The Concept of Countervailing Power[M]. New York: Houghton Mifflin, 1952.
[13] Stigler G.J. A Theory of Oligopoly[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 1954, 72: 44-61.
[14] Lustgarten S.H. The Impact of Buyer Concentration in Manufacturing Industries[J]. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1975, (LVII): 125-132.
[15] Ellison S.F., Snyder C. M. Countervailing Power in Wholesale Pharmaceuticals[J]. Journal of Industrial Economics, 2010, 58(1): 32-53.
[16] 王宇. 中国零售商买方势力的福利效应研究[D]. 北京:首都经济与贸易大学,2015.
[17] 张维今,李伟,李凯.基于我国零售业市场特征的大型零售商买方势力效应研究[J]. 中国软科学,2016,(8):175-183.
[18] 杨承坤. 中国房地产业市场集中度分析[J]. 时代经贸,2008,(4):97-100.
[19] 张红,王悦.基于CR指标集成的中国房地产产业集中度测算与比较[J]. 清华大学学报(自然科学版),2013,(5):630-635.
[20] 唐晓灵,白宝焕.我国房地产开发市场集中度研究[J]. 商业时代,2012,(26):126-128.
[21] 王斯亮,王鹤翔.各省商品住宅市场集中度比较[J]. 合作经济与科技,2010,(8):6-8.
[22] 中国房地产业协会.房地产企业做大做强研究[J]. 城市开发,2009,(5)、(6)、
[23] 牟玲玲,宫正.我国房地产市场结构研究[J]. 发展研究,2016,(7):65-68.
[24] 黄慧,汪波.房地产业市场结构与价格行为实证研究——以天津为例[J]. 价格理论与实践,2008,(1):45-46.
[25] 李宏瑾. 我国房地产市场垄断程度研究——勒纳指数的测算[J]. 财经问题研究,2005,(3):3-10.
[26] 刘会洪,袁蕾.我国房地产市场结构测度及影响因素——基于地区面板数据的实证分析[J]. 工业技术经济,2010,(3):54-57.
[27] 尹中立.房地产业集中度仍有提升空间[N]. 中国证券报,2019-01-23(A05).
[28] 彭嘉欣. 中国房地产市场集中度演化及其影响因素分析[D]. 山东:山东大学,2019.
[29] 穆子犁. 提升房地产行业集中度会导致行业垄断吗?[J]. 上海房地,2018,(6):5-7.
[30] 李宇嘉. 房地产行业集中与分化的“新趋势”[J]. 房地产市场,2018,(16):29-33.
[31] Mishkin S., Frederic F.How Big a Problem is Too Big to Fail? A Review of Gary Stern and Ron Feldman's? Too Big to Fail: The Hazards of Bank Bailouts[J]. Journal of Economic Literature, 2006, 44(4): 988-1004.
[32] Asli Demirgüc-Kunt, Harry Huizinga.Are Banks too Big to Fail or too Big to Save? International Evidence from Equity Prices and CDS Spreads[J]. Journal of Banking & Finance, 2013, 37(3): 875-894.
[33] Zhou C.Are Banks too Big to Fail? Measuring Systemic Importance of Financial Institutions[J]. International Journal of Central Banking, 2010, 6(4): 205-250.
[34] 宋长青. 银行业市场集中度对货币政策传导有效性影响研究——基于信贷传导视角[J]. 财经理论与实践,2019,(5):32-38.
[35] Bain J.S.Industrial Organization[M]. New York: Harvard University Press, 1959.
[36] 植草益. 产业组织论[M]. 北京:中国人民大学出版社,1988.