江西财经大学学报 ›› 2026, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (1): 50-61.

• 经济高质量发展专题 • 上一篇    下一篇

以高质量发展的确定性应对各种不确定性:理论依据、现实来源和实践要求

倪红福1a,1b, 倪滔1c, 王晓星2   

  1. 1.中国社会科学院大学 a.应用经济学院 b.低空经济研究中心 c.马克思主义学院,北京 102488;
    2.首都经济贸易大学 经济学院,北京 100070
  • 收稿日期:2025-10-08 修回日期:2025-12-14 出版日期:2026-01-25 发布日期:2026-02-09
  • 通讯作者: 王晓星,首都经济贸易大学讲师,经济学博士,主要从事贸易政策与全球价值链研究,联系方式 wxx@cueb.edu.cn。
  • 作者简介:倪红福,中国社会科学院大学教授,经济学博士,博士生导师,主要从事宏观经济、世界经济和习近平经济思想研究;倪滔,中国社会科学院大学硕士研究生,主要从事马克思主义政治经济学研究。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金专项项目“中国贸易投资开放发展:基本规律、宏观效应与‘双循环'新发展格局构建”(72141309); 教育部人文社会科学研究项目“国际经贸规则重构下深度贸易协定的量化及贸易与福利效应研究”(24YJC790181); 中国社会科学院学科建设“登峰战略”资助计划(DF2023YS23,DF2023ZD02)

Addressing Various Uncertainties with the Certainty of High-Quality Development: Theoretical Basis, Practical Sources, and Practical Requirements

Ni Hong-fu1, Ni Tao1, Wang Xiao-xing2   

  1. 1. University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 102488;
    2. Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070, China
  • Received:2025-10-08 Revised:2025-12-14 Online:2026-01-25 Published:2026-02-09

摘要: 在全球经济复苏乏力、地缘风险加剧、技术封锁及国际规则重构背景下,我国经济面临前所未有的外部不确定性,确定性成为一种稀缺资源。如何在复杂多变的国际形势中保持经济稳定性与战略方向的正确性,成为当前发展面临的重要课题。围绕“以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性”这一核心命题,深入探讨了高质量发展确定性应对各种不确定性的理论依据和历史经验,并从党的领导、社会主要矛盾转化、坚实的物质技术基础、高水平对外开放与社会共识五个方面分析了高质量发展确定性的现实来源。进一步,在各种不确定性背景下,应坚持和加强党的全面领导、贯彻新发展理念、稳住经济运行基本盘、完善宏观经济治理体系、坚持稳中求进、加快构建新发展格局、推动全国统一大市场建设,以夯实高质量发展确定性的基础,推动经济社会持续健康发展。

关键词: 高质量发展, 理论依据, 现实来源, 外部不确定性, 新发展格局

Abstract: Against the backdrop of sluggish global economic recovery, intensified geopolitical risks, technological blockades, and the restructuring of international rules, China's economy faces unprecedented external uncertainties, making certainty a scarce resource. How to maintain economic stability and strategic direction in a complex and volatile international situation has become an important issue facing current development. Centered around the core proposition of“responding to various uncertainties of rapid changes in the external environment with the certainty of high-quality development”, this paper delves into the theoretical basis and historical experience of how high-quality development can respond to various uncertainties, and analyzes the practical sources of certainty in high-quality development from five aspects: Party leadership, transformation of the principal contradiction in society, solid material and technological foundation, high-level opening up, and social consensus. Furthermore, in the context of various uncertainties, we should adhere to and strengthen the overall leadership of the Party, implement the new development concept, stabilize the basic operation of the economy, improve the macroeconomic governance system, persist in seeking progress while maintaining stability, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, and promote the construction of a unified national market. We can consolidate the foundation of certainty in high-quality development to promote the continuous and healthy development of the economy and society.

Key words: high-quality development, theoretical basis, practical sources, external uncertainties, new development pattern

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