关键词: 户籍城镇化, 生育意愿, 多项logit模型, 就地城镇化

Abstract: China's fertility level has been lower than the international warning line; the future period may be faced with a more severe population situation. Based on the construction of the mechanism model, this paper conducts an empirical test on the relationship between the relationship between household registration urbanization and fertility intentionby employing the micro data of China General Social Survey (CGSS) in 2017. It makes use of the binary selection model and the multinomial logit model to explore the impact of household registration urbanization on fertility intention. The empirical results show that urban residents have a lower willingness to have children than rural residents, and the willingness of urban residents to have multiple children shows a decreasing trend. The group regression results show that the overall impact of household registration urbanization on middle and high childbearing age groups, low-income groups and the eastern region is more significant. The improvement of the income level under both the local urbanization and the urbanization in different places can effectively improve the fertility level. The “crowding out effect” caused by social security on fertility is mainly reflected in the relatively significant development mode of the urbanization in different places. The above conclusions provide data support and analytical perspective for assessing the impact of urbanization on fertility intention, and also provide policy reference for exploring the realistic path of improving people's fertility intention by combining the three-child policy with supporting measures related to income, education and housing.

Key words: household registration urbanization, fertility intention, multinomial Logit model, Local urbanization