关键词: 居民家庭, 加杠杆, 消费升级, 经济平稳增长

Abstract: Based on the TVP-SV-VAR model and the macroeconomic data from 2002 to 2019, this paper explores the dynamic transmission mechanism and the time-varying impact among the leverage ratio of the residential sector, the consumption upgrading and the stable economic growth. The results show that, firstly, there exists an interactive impact among the leverage ratio of the residential sector, the consumption upgrading and the stable economic growth, the degrees and the direction of the impact are different at different time point, showing the time-varying and heterogeneous characteristics. Secondly, in terms of the impact in the same period of the variables, the increase of the leverage rate of residential sector has a negative impact on the current consumption upgrading, and a positive impact on the current stable economic growth. Thirdly, in terms of the evenly-spaced impulse response, the transmission effect of residents’ leverage rate changes on the consumption upgrading has experienced a changing process of “first decease and then increase”, while the transmission effect on the stable economic growth has experienced a changing process of “first increase and then decrease”. Fourthly, in terms of the impulse response at specific time points, the household leverage at the specific time-points has not been able to effectively promote the consumption upgrading, and the medium and long term house loans have “squeezed out” the consumption expenditures. But with the promotion of the supply side structural reform, this negative impact will be gradually weakened. This also puts forward higher requirements for the in-depth promotion of “promoting consumption” and “stabilizing growth” through “the structural deleveraging”.

Key words: household, leverage, consumption upgrading, stable economic growth