江西财经大学学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (1): 104-115.

• “三农”研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

南方稻作区化肥施用强度时空演变及驱动因素研究

张利国a, 刘辰a,b, 陈苏a   

  1. 江西财经大学 a. 经济学院; b. 中国农业农村现代化研究院,江西 南昌 330013
  • 收稿日期:2020-10-18 修回日期:2020-11-30 出版日期:2021-01-25 发布日期:2021-01-19
  • 通讯作者: 刘 辰,江西财经大学助理研究员,主要从事资源环境经济研究,联系方式 lc_jxcj@163.com。
  • 作者简介:张利国,江西财经大学教授,博士生导师,农业经济管理博士,主要从事资源环境、农村发展研究;陈 苏,江西财经大学讲师,博士,主要从事农业经济理论与政策、资源环境经济研究。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目“农户分化视角下农业生产社会化服务体系构建:需求差异、绩效评价和驱动机制”(72073054); 国家自然科学基金项目“南方多熟制粮区小农户化肥减量化行为及干预效果的实证研究”(72063014); 教育部人文社会科学研究项目“南方多熟制粮区化肥减量化政策效果与农户响应研究”(20C10421046)

A Study of the Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Fertilizer Application Intensity in Southern Rice Cultivation Area

ZHANG Li-guo, LIU Chen, CHEN Su   

  1. Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330013, China
  • Received:2020-10-18 Revised:2020-11-30 Online:2021-01-25 Published:2021-01-19

摘要: 基于南方稻作区2001—2018年设区市面板数据,探讨了南方稻作区化肥施用强度的时空演变特征,并运用探索性空间分析方法和空间杜宾模型实证分析了南方稻作区化肥施用强度的驱动因素。研究表明:在时间上,南方稻作区化肥施用强度处于先波动上升再波动下降趋势。在空间上,该区域化肥施用强度空间集聚效应明显,沿海地区大部分表现为“高-高”集聚特征,内陆地区大部分表现为“低-低”集聚特征,沿海地区化肥施用强度总体高于内陆地区,化肥施用强度存在显著的空间正自相关性和时间滞后性。农村居民人均收入、人均耕地面积、农业种植结构、农业技术进步是影响化肥施用强度的重要驱动因素。

关键词: 化肥施用强度, 时空演变, 驱动因素

Abstract: Based on the panel data of the cities with districts in the southern rice cultivation area from 2001 to 2018, this paper explores the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of fertilizer application intensity in the southern rice cultivation area, and it uses ESDA and SDM to empirically analyze the driving factors on fertilizer application intensity in the southern rice cultivation area. The results show that in terms of time, the fertilizer application intensity in the southern rice cultivation area fluctuates and presents a tendency of first rising then falling. In terms of space, the spatial agglomeration effect of fertilizer application intensity in this region is particularly obvious. Most of the coastal areas are characterized by“high-high”agglomeration, and most inland areas are characterized by“low-low”agglomeration, while the fertilizer application intensity in coastal areas is generally higher than that in inland areas; there exist significant spatial positive autocorrelation and time lag in fertilizer application intensity. The important driving factors on fertilizer application intensity are rural residents'per capita income, per capita arable land, agricultural planting structure, and agricultural technology progress.

Key words: fertilizer application intensity, temporal and spatial evolution, driving factors

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