关键词: 粮食布局,非农就业,土地流转,粮食安全,Mvprobit模型

Abstract: By making use of the CHIP2013 data, this paper examines the impact of grain distribution and non-farm employment on the area and mode selection of farmers’ land transfer with OLS and Mvprobit models. The findings show that the non-farm employment opportunity can significantly reduce the size of land transfer, while the payroll scale and time of non-farm employment can have a significant positive impact on land transfer. The farmers in the major grain producing areas tend to transfer their land, and the non-farm employment can enhance this promotion effect; while the farmers in the major grain sale areas do not tend to transfer their land, and the non-farm employment can enhances this inhibition effect; as for the grain balanced areas, there is no significant effect on land transfer, it is not significant even if the variable of non-farm employment is added. The farmers in the major grain producing areas are prefer to transfer their land to individuals with compensation, while the farmers in the major grain sale areas and the balanced areas are not willing to transfer their land to individuals; compared to transferring their land to the village collective, the farmers prefer to transfer their land to individuals, enterprises or large farmer-households with compensation. In order to further raise the level of grain safety guarantee, we should treat farmers’ land transfer differently in accordance with the distribution of grain production, and formulate different policies for non-farm employment.

Key words: grain distribution; non-farm employment; land transfer; food security; Mvprobit model