关键词: 人口变动,养老保险,医疗保险,CGE模型

Abstract: With the fertility rates falling and the life expectancy gradually extending, China’s population age structure will be turned from the“spindle shape”into the“inverted triangle shape”in the near future. The social and economic consequences that may resulted from have attracted high attention from the government and the academic circle, so that the “double alone two child policy”, the “one along two-child policy” and the “universal two-child policy” have come into being one by one. Then how will birth policy adjustment impact on economic growth and social insurance in China? This paper employs the CGE model to compare and analyze the impact of different demographic change path on China’s economic growth, endowment insurance and medical insurance in the future. The findings show that if the fertility rate rises to the level close to the replacement level, the GDP gross and per capita GDP will be the highest, the accumulated pension debt will be the minimum, and the accumulated surplus of medical insurance will be the maximum, which can reduce the public financial burden in China.

Key words: demographic change; endowment insurance; medical insurance; computable general equilibrium model