关键词: 区域异质性,扩散效应,商品房价格,银行信贷,GVAR模型

Abstract: With the growing gap of economic development disparity between the regions, the real estate market under the impact of bank credit presents an increasingly significant regional heterogeneity. At the same time, the diffusing effect of housing prices is becoming a factor not to be ignored when studying the real estate economy, for it will affect the direct effect of bank credit impact on the real estate market. In order to analyze dynamically the regional heterogeneity of commercial housing prices impacted by bank credits, which is blended with housing price diffusion effect, this paper constructs a global vector autoregression model to conduct an empirical analysis by making use of the quarterly data of China’s 35 large and medium cities from 2002 to 2010. The results show that under bank credit impact the regional housing prices present some similar response characteristics, the amount of credit supply has a larger impact on the regional housing prices, while the housing prices under the impact of loan interest rates can be adjusted rapidly. Regional heterogeneity is mainly reflected in that both the strength and speed of response of housing prices in the eastern region towards bank credit impact exceed those in the central and western regions, while the housing prices in the central and western regions have a relatively short time for steady convergence when impacted by credit.

Key words: regional heterogeneity; diffusion effects; commercial housing prices; bank credit; GVAR model